Iraq Vote:
In both chambers of Congress, overwhelming majorities voted to authorize the use of force against Iraq. The margins and the individual votes point to important political realities, especially within the Democratic Party.
1) In the House, a good majority of Democrats voted "no," going against their leader, Rep. Dick Gephardt (D.-Mo.). This is a notch in the belt of Democratic Whip Rep. Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), who leads the liberal, anti-war faction of the party. This bodes ill for Democratic Caucus Chairman Martin Frost (Tex.), who is trying, with Gephardt, to lead the party in a different direction, and who plans to challenge Pelosi for the leader job when Gephardt steps aside to run for President.
2) Every vulnerable Democrat but two voted "yes" on the resolution. Reps. Julia Carson (Ind.) and Jim Maloney (Conn.), both fighting for re-election in liberal districts, voted "no."
3) The two most vulnerable Republicans both voted "no": liberal Reps. Jim Leach (Iowa) and Connie Morella (Md.). Fellow liberal Rep. Amo Houghton (N.Y.) also cast an anti-war vote. Three conservatives-Reps. Ron Paul (Tex.), John Hostettler (Ind.) and John Duncan (Tenn.)-voted "no." None will suffer politically.
4) Liberal Sen. Paul Wellstone (D.-Minn.) was the only endangered Senator to vote against war. It looks politically like the right move for him to have made.
Outlook:
With only two weeks remaining before the election, all evidence is that the Democrats have failed to "nationalize" the election. That is relatively good news for Republicans, who have not really even tried to establish a clear national election trend.
1) The best nationalizing issue in mid-term elections during recent decades has been a poor economy while a Republican is in the White House-creating a landslide in ’58 and major gains in ’82. But there are really not enough people who feel an economic bite this year to yield big electoral gains. Most Democrats in tight races are unwilling to call for a rollback of the Bush tax cuts.
2) Over the past summer, Democrats counted on the "Enron issue"-corporate corruption-to produce a real surge of perhaps 20 seats gained in the House. However, this issue lacked both intensity and staying power.
3) Democrats have concentrated on health issues-prescription drugs and HMO regulation - plus Social Security protection. There is no sign that this is turning any close elections.
4) The Republicans have kept away from conservative issues-racial preferences, school choice, tax cuts, Social Security privatization-that involve an element of risk. Such caution has been the rule rather than the exception for the GOP over the years.
5) The social issues that played such a major role in recent years-abortion and gun control-are avoided by both parties as too risky.
6) It has been difficult to make President George W. Bush’s war leadership a positive for the GOP when a) Democrats in most tight races are embracing the President and b) Democrats did not make Iraq a party issue (see above). The debate over who is killing the homeland security bill is too abstruse to grasp voters’ attention.
California:
The question as we go to press is whether President Bush will make a last minute trip to San Diego to try to boost Bill Simon (R.) against Gray Davis (D.). It may depend which poll you believe-Republican pollsters who see it close or Democrats who see a double-digit Davis lead.
1) Davis is incredibly unpopular, but Simon is a rookie candidate who has made every mistake in the book. The guess is that Secretary of State Bill Jones (R.) would have been the winner against Davis, but Jones ran third in the Republican primary. Ex-Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan (R.), runner-up to Simon in the primary, last week ruled out a write-in effort.
2) The Republican Party in California is a poor second to the Democrats in voters, money and organization. There is at most one competitive congressional race, one competitive state Senate race and two competitive state assembly races. Democrats are outspending the Republicans in all these races.
3) Gov. Gray Davis’s (D.) negatives are unusually high after two terms, rivaled only by the negatives of his opponent, political newcomer Bill Simon (R.). Leaning Democratic Retention.
Florida:
Attorney Bill McBride (D.) has made major strides lately against Gov. Jeb Bush (R). Democrat polls show a tie, Republican polls show an eight-point Bush lead, while neutral polls split the difference. Leaning Republican Retention.
