Current Outlook:
Republicans +4: 227-207-1 and continued Republican control.
Overview:
Most of the movement over the past two weeks has happened in Georgia where two of the districts drawn for Democrats have become nearly tossups. Also, Republicans have made a surge in the old seat of Rep. Gary Condit (D) and in the new Colorado seat in the Denver suburbs.
Republicans hope that this tightening is the early signs of momentum going into the election. Along the same lines, Republican Reps. John Shimkus (Ill.) and Nancy Johnson (Conn.) are pulling away in their incumbent v. incumbent battles.
The open seat races in Indiana and South Dakota remain neck-and-neck.
Despite this movement, we see no underdogs moving into the lead yet in any of the contested races.
Alabama-3: This district, vacated by Rep. Bob Riley (R.) is evenly split between Republican and Democratic voters. However, House Minority Leader Mike Rogers (R.) appears to hold a healthy lead over consultant Joe Turnham (D.). Leaning Republican Retention.
Arizona-1: This new district was an honest tossup until Democrats nominated a weaker candidate in businessman George Cordova (D.). This gives the edge to businessman Rick Renzi (R) in one of the tightest open seats in the country. Leaning Republican Pickup.
California-18: Not much news or polling has come out of Rep. Gary Condit’s (D.) old district, but Republicans just released a survey showing State Sen. Dick Monteith (R.) leading Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza (D.) 42% to 34. Leaning Democratic Retention.
Colorado-7: Along with the Indiana district, this is one of the top two open seats in the country. A poll last week showed a dead tie, and momentum in the Senate race could affect the vote here. Still, the edge belongs to Senate Minority Leader Mike Feeley (D.) over former party Chairman Bob Beauprez (R.). Leaning Democratic Pickup.
Georgia-11: Democrats may have overshot in redistricting. Businessman Roger Kahn (D.) is now in a very tight race with State Sen. Phil Gingrey (R.). Leaning Democratic Pickup.
Georgia-12: Democratic nominee Champ Walker decided to skip a scheduled televised debate last week, giving County Commissioner Max Burns (R.) some free airtime. Walker could be giving this one away. Leaning Democratic Pickup.
Illinois-19: A Republican poll shows Rep. John Shimkus (R.) leading Rep. David Phelps (D.) by 13 points. That margin is unrealistic, but Shimkus is the favorite here despite a recent poll showing Phelps ahead. Leaning Republican.
Maine-2: State Sen. Mike Michaud (D.) leads former Senate staffer Kevin Raye (R.) in a battle between a blue-collar pro-life Democrat and a pro-choice Republican. Leaning Democratic Retention.
Presidential 2004:
Iowa Democrats, at their annual Jefferson-Jackson fundraiser, brought in three presidential hopefuls.
1) Sen. John Kerry (D.-Mass.) was the most popular of the contenders with the activists and politicians in attendance. He is seen as a liberal, but one who has more "gravitas" than some of the other politicians at the left end of the party. With three Senate terms and active duty in Vietnam on his resume, he strikes many of the Iowans as the most credible of the candidates.
2) Kerry impressed the dinner crowd with a speech that mixed barbs at the Republicans, lofty rhetoric and a few traces of policy. He was the only one of the three not to call explicitly for a repeal of the 2001 tax cuts. Kerry is also the most savvy in wooing the Iowa Democrats.
3) Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D.) made the biggest splash over the weekend. Only the most politically astute Democrats knew very much about Dean at all before Saturday night. Dean was the most straightforward about his Presidential aspirations, and easily the most thorough with his policy prescriptions.
4) Spelling out how he would implement universal health care and avoid the political pitfalls of the ’93 "HillaryCare" debacle, Dean recalled 2000 candidate Bill Bradley to many of the Dems. The comparison to Jimmy Carter, another small-state, little-known governor, was made frequently. The fear that he is too liberal or Vermont too "far out" for the middle of the country was present, but mostly discarded by the activists present.
5) It was nearly unanimous that the weakest showing was by Sen. John Edwards (D.-N.C.), who had generated little or no enthusiasm before last weekend, and won no new converts with his performance in Iowa. His speech was nearly devoid of substance (outside of a call to roll back the Bush tax cut) and rhetorically fell far short of Kerry. While his youth and good looks win him some points, the base is unimpressed with Edwards.
