Iraq:
President George W. Bush is clearly in the commanding position politically on the war issue.
1) The President’s speech last Monday night was an effective presentation, though the decision to deliver it from middle America in Cincinnati before a live, invitation-only audience, instead of from the oval office, was too clever by half.
2) Secretary of State Colin Powell has prevailed over the dominant hard-liners in the administration on many issues: seeking congressional authorization, going to the UN, minimizing "change of regime" rhetoric, recognizing at least the theoretical possibility of weapons inspection.
3) An armed attack on Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein is still likely, though less as a unilateral venture than the hard-liners would have preferred. Still, the Iraqis have the power to escape military punishment by agreeing to UN demands.
4) Once Bush agreed to a modified war resolution (less than a blank check and limited to Iraq), passage by a huge, bipartisan margin was assured-by a much larger majority than passed the 1991 war resolution.
5) The disaster for the peace bloc was the ill-timed visit to Baghdad by three left-wing Democrats and the indiscreet personal attacks there on Bush by Rep. Jim McDermott (D.-Wash). That forced disavowal by Democratic leaders and modification of criticism generally.
6) The decisive event was the appearance with Bush in the rose garden of House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt (D.-Mo.)-along with Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D.-Conn.)-in support of the amended resolution. Gephardt is desperate to end the debate on the war and spotlight "kitchen-table" economic issues in time for the November 5 election.
7) That has produced a mixed bag for presidential hopeful Gephardt. He is anathema on the left of the party, with activists pledging to block his hoped-for jump start in the 2004 Iowa caucuses. On the other hand, Gephardt has won applause from blue-collar construction unions.
8) Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D.-S.D.) has played it much cozier than Gephardt, criticizing the McDermott performance in Baghdad but not yet signing on to the war resolution. The guess is that Daschle will end up voting for the war resolution.
9) It is unlikely there will be a Senate alternative co-sponsored by Sen. Richard Lugar (R.-Ind.), recipient of a long personal telephone call from the President last week. That may leave a very restrictive alternative sponsored by Sen. Carl Levin (D.-Mich.), which has little appeal to any Republicans.
Iowa Elections 2002:
Democrats currently control all statewide positions besides one U.S. Senate seat and the state auditor job. They are in good position to keep their near-monopoly, they could gain in the U.S. House, and they may come close to taking back the state House and Senate.
1) Sen. Tom Harkin (D.) never wins big in his Senate races, but he always wins. Rep. Greg Ganske (R.) hoped to make up his nearly 20-point deficit in the wake of a scandal involving the Harkin camp taping a Ganske meeting, but that flap will not do much for the Republican challenger.
2) Ganske first came to Washington by knocking off entrenched liberal Rep. Neil Smith (D.), a feat he wants to replicate this year. But the situation is different this time around. In 1994, when Ganske first won, the entire nation was shifting Republican, and Ganske ran one of the country’s most spirited campaigns. This year, he does not even approach that level of enthusiasm, and voters are not excited to fire Harkin.
3) Almost as uninspired is the challenge to Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D.) by political newcomer Doug Gross (R.). Gross is running closer in the polls than Ganske, but Iowa’s economy, unemployment and schools are faring better than in the rest of the country, and so beating Vilsack is a longshot.
4) The most vulnerable incumbent in Iowa is Rep. Jim Leach (R.), now that Rep. Tom Latham (R.) has ramped up his campaign. Leach is running in the state’s most Democratic district.
5) Fifth district Republican nominee Steve King (R.), a conservative state Senator, has the only easy race in the state.
6) In the 3rd district, State Rep. Stan Thompson (R.) is giving Rep. Leonard Boswell (D.) a run for his money. This suburban/rural/urban district is fairly new to Boswell, who had to move after the new district map was drawn. The edge is with incumbent Boswell.
7) Statewide, all Democrats are aided by a flood of national money from the politicians who want to be President. This could make 2002 an Iowa sweep for Democrats, resulting in a pickup or two in the House, state legislative gains, and across-the-board retentions on the statewide level.
