A new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research reports that a guaranteed basic income program in Finland had no measurable effect on crime, contrary to what some would think. The findings come from a two year nationwide experiment that assigned unconditional monthly payments to a randomized group of unemployed adults.
The research is the first large scale experimental evidence on whether guaranteed basic income changes criminal behavior, reports NBER.
The Finnish experiment began in 2017. In the program, 2,000 unemployed individuals were randomly selected to receive a monthly payment of 560 euros with no conditions attached. A comparison group of 173,222 unemployed adults continued under the standard Finnish social assistance system.
The goal of the trial was to measure how unconditional income support affects employment, wellbeing, and other social outcomes. Crime was included as one of the outcomes of interest.
The researchers used administrative data from police reports and district court trials to measure crime perpetration and victimization. The data covered the entire duration of the experiment. According to the study, the point estimates for all crime outcomes were small and statistically insignificant.
The confidence intervals excluded reductions in criminal reports of 5 percent or more and reductions in criminal charges of 10 percent or more. The study also found no change in crime victimization among participants who received the payments.
"This paper provides the first experimental evidence on the impact of providing a guaranteed basic income on criminal perpetration and victimization," the paper reads.
"We analyze a nationwide randomized controlled trial that provided 2,000 unemployed individuals in Finland with an unconditional monthly payment of 560 Euros for two years (2017-2018), while 173,222 comparable individuals remained under the existing social safety net. Using comprehensive administrative data on police reports and district court trials, we estimate precise zero effects on criminal perpetration and victimization.
"Point estimates are small and statistically insignificant across all crime categories. Our confidence intervals rule out reductions in perpetration of 5 percent or more for crime reports and 10 percent or more for criminal charges."
The research team concluded that the guaranteed basic income program did not reduce criminal behavior during the period examined.
The authors noted that the expectations often attached to basic income programs, including the belief that financial support will significantly reduce crime, were not supported by the evidence.
