This declaration is not mere rhetoric. Videos from the rebels have circulated widely, making their goals clear: Israel is also a target. This direct threat underscores the dangerous reality of the post-Assad era. The collapse of Syria has not only destabilized the region but has also created a vacuum that could embolden radical elements with Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon and Israel in their crosshairs.
The collapse of Assad’s regime marks the end of the Alawite regime in Syria, an era where the minority Alawite population persecuted the other ethnic groups in Syria to control the country. With the fall of the Alawite Assad regime, Syria now enters a stage where the country might be cut up into several smaller ethnic areas, with the Islamist Sunni militants persecuting the ethnic groups in their controlled areas. One bad situation has been switched with another bad situation.
Sunni militants, backed by various regional powers, are seizing the opportunity to consolidate their hold on as much land as possible in Syria. The fact that the Taliban was among the first to congratulate these militants tells us everything we need to know about the kind of regime that could emerge in Syria—a repressive Taliban-like Islamist state that exports terror and instability across the region and beyond.
For Israel, this poses a significant challenge. A Sunni Islamist-controlled Syria could become a staging ground for terror attacks, further destabilizing Israel's northern border. Hence, Israel has done a phenomenal job over the last few days to decimate as much of the Syrian military installations and chemical weapons facilities as possible to ensure none of it falls into the dangerous hands of the Islamist militants now taking control over areas of Syria.
In response to the chaos, Israel has declared the 1974 treaty with Syria invalid and moved forces into Syrian territory, now controlling also the Syrian side of the Golan Heights and the Hermon mountain, a key geographic highland that is important for Israel's security. This is a critical step. The agreement was made with Assad’s Syria, and that Syria no longer exists. The time has come to create a new strategic reality that secures Israel’s borders and prevents hostile forces from gaining a foothold anywhere close to Israel's border.
This is not just about defending the Golan Heights—it’s about creating a buffer zone in Syrian territory to ensure Israel’s safety. Israel cannot allow radical Islamist factions to entrench themselves near her borders.
Complicating the picture further is Turkey, a NATO member pursuing its own agenda of regional dominance. Backing Sunni Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated jihadi groups, Turkey sees Syria’s collapse as an opportunity to expand its influence. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has long sought to position Turkey as a Sunni Islamic powerbroker, and his support for these factions aligns with his broader Islamist vision.
The troubling reality is that Turkey's involvement could draw Israel into direct conflict with a NATO member. If Turkey encourages its proxies—or even its own forces—to attack Israel, Israel would face the unprecedented situation of defending itself against a NATO ally. This underscores the glaring contradiction of Turkey’s NATO membership; a country aligned with Muslim Brotherhood ideology and supporting jihadist groups has no place in an alliance ostensibly built to protect democratic values.
The ripple effects of Syria’s collapse are not confined to its borders. The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, another minority tribe that rules over a much larger population of various other tribes, already grappling with internal unrest, now faces a growing threat from the chaos next door. Jordan’s stability relies on a delicate balance, but the success of the radical Sunni factions in Syria could ignite unrest among its majority Sunni population as well. A destabilized Jordan would create yet another security challenge for Israel, with chaos spilling over onto its eastern flank.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah—already weakened by Israel’s decisive actions—now finds itself further isolated. However, the Sunni militias emboldened by their success in Syria may turn their attention to Lebanon, targeting both Hezbollah and potentially Israel from Israel's border with Lebanon.
Iraq is another potential flashpoint, as it is politically heavily influenced by Iran. Hence, the Sunni militants in Syria might continue their anti-Iranian/anti-Shia crusade in Iraq, further igniting the region.
The United States under the Biden administration has responded to the fall of the Assad regime with a mix of actions: backing the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), targeting ISIS encampments, and “monitoring” Syria’s chemical weapons. These steps reflect America’s divided approach to the region, which lacks the clarity and understanding of Middle East Islamic religious and tribal influence.
President-elect Trump has expressed a desire to keep the US out of Syria’s conflict. Let's see how successful he can be. Many think that the West cannot fully disengage, especially as the chaos in Syria leads to potentially new waves of refugees and a resurgent terror threat.
While Assad and his Russian and Iranian backers have clearly lost with Assad's downfall in Syria, it’s less clear who has won. Radical Islamist factions may gain control, but their rule will likely be weak and contested by other militant factions. Turkey’s involvement complicates the picture further, as its actions are driven by an agenda that is at odds with both Western and Israeli interests.
Israel, however, has a unique opportunity. By acting decisively to secure her borders, neutralize threats, and expand her strategic depth, Israel can shape the future of the region to its advantage. The question is whether the incoming Trump administration will support these efforts or continue to appease Turkey and other destabilizing forces.
The chaos in Syria underscores the volatile nature of the Middle East. While Israel’s leaders, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, understand the realities of the region, Western governments often act with a mindset rooted in appeasement rather than strength. This is not a luxury Israel can afford.
The Middle East is changing rapidly, back to its natural state of tribalism, with the Sykes-Picot agreements basically being nullified as we speak, and Israel must adapt to this new reality with strength, vigilance, and faith. Policy for the incoming Trump administration would be best to back Israel to do just that, in order to prevent the US from having to get too involved in the extremely volatile Middle East.
