“COP28 ends with historic deal to ‘transition away’ from planet-warming fossil fuels,” Time Magazine wrote.
“Oil, coal and gas are doomed, global leaders say in historic resolution,” USA Today Headlined.
“COP28 landmark deal agreed to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels,” boasted the lead story in the UK Guardian.
In reality, these headlines are filled with much pizzaz and little substance. The actual agreement is far more “business as usual” than it is revolutionary.
Specifically, the “consensus” calls for countries to “transition away” from fossil fuels in a “just, orderly and equitable manner” – whatever that means, since none of these terms is defined.
It also renews nonbinding and unenforceable pledges that nations will try to reach “net zero” by mid-century and triple the still-minuscule worldwide amount of renewable by 2030. Yawn.
These are the “same old, same old” items many nations have been undertaking and spending billions on for years. As David Blackmon noted in Forbes, what was agreed to in Dubai was “merely a restatement of commitments many of the signatory governments have already embarked upon for years and failed to achieve.”
They will fail again. The reason is obvious, and it was brought to light throughout the COP-28 process.
Even before the gavel fell to open the proceedings, the G20 nations failed to issue a statement calling for the “phasing out” of fossil fuels last July. This was because countries like Saudi Arabia, China, Russia and South Africa dug their heels in and refused to budge. This remained the case throughout the COP-28 process.
While they did eventually agree to the term “transition” instead of “phasing out” during the final hours of the COP deliberations, it’s unclear what all the fuss was about.
The fact of the matter is, these countries are never going to budge. None of them is about to gut the use of fossil fuels and follow the West’s lead in committing economic hara-kiri.
How can we be sure? Because actions speak louder than words.
The oil-rich UAE, which hosted COP-28, made no bones about placing Sultan Al-Jaber, president of the world’s 11th largest oil and gas producer, in charge of COP-28. While the UAE boasted to the applause of conference attendees that it was putting some $30 billion toward a fund to expand renewable energy development, it kept a little more quiet about the fact that it is spending five times that much – around $150 billion over the next few years – to expand its oil and gas development.
The same could be said for China and India. Despite having slick venues at COP-28 showcasing their commitments to a “clean energy future,” China approved two new coal plants every week in 2022 and India is set to increase its coal use by 25% by 2030.
Having attended 25 of the 28 UN climate meetings since their inception, I’ve become accustomed to this routine COP plotline.
In predictable fashion, as if penned by a second-rate Hollywood script writer, these gatherings have all the drama and intrigue of a sappy Christmas movie on the Hallmark Channel … minus the warm fuzzies that often make Hallmark worth watching.
These COP events typically start with assertions that a looming calamity faces humanity, requiring urgent action. At COP-28, this began when the media hyped natural weather events, like hurricane Idalia and Hillary, and all summer long linked them all to climate change. It continued into November, with the National Climate Assessment report saying climate change is making our modern ultra-high-tech lives harder.
The media narrative then thickens the plot by painting a picture of seeming hopelessness, with evil fossil fuels prevailing. We endure this rigamarole every year, with endless hype about oil-producing nations fueling discord during the conference and the possibility that the summit will end in collapse.
But, true to form, the drama always ends with a “happily ever after.” By the time the conference concludes, a “compromise” is reached, with those on the side of good triumphing (this would be Al Gore and company), evil being vanquished or at least being corralled (fossil fuel companies), and hope being restored for humanity and planet. Sigh.
The reality of these COP meetings is quite different. The heroes are not selfless defenders of “truth and justice.” They are elites, who never lead by example or give up their private jets, limos, red meat and other conveniences, for the betterment of humanity. They indulge in them every year, as I have seen firsthand, basking in the opulence of exotic cities like Dubai, while insisting that others (we commoners) follow their dictates, not their examples.
Perhaps when the public understands this ongoing, repetitive charade, these COP dramas will enter a final season and finally get canceled. Sadly, that’s likely wishful thinking. There’s far too much money and power at stake.
So expect the same sorry plotline to emerge same time, next year.
