Biden is trailing Trump in five out of the six most critical battleground states. This includes Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, with Biden only holding a slim lead in Wisconsin. These states were all carried by Biden in 2020. When it came to the economy, Trump leads Biden by 59 percent to 37 percent margin. That’s astonishing, but maybe it shouldn’t be since mortgage rates are at an all-time high, and inflation is still killing the finances of the working class.
The Times article interviewed a young liquor store employee Jahmerry Henry, who said “I actually had high hopes for Biden. You can’t be worse than Trump. But then as the years go by, things happen with inflation, the war going on in Ukraine, recently Israel and I guess our borders are not secure at all.”
A majority of voters believe that his policies have personally harmed them, and the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that once supported him is unraveling. A whole lot of people suddenly are going to find out next year that they “ain’t black,” to use Biden’s insulting phrase. Even demographic groups that gave Biden a landslide victory in 2020 are now closely contested, with two-thirds of the electorate believing that the country is heading in the wrong direction.
Biden's age is also a glaring liability. At 81 years old, he is the oldest president in American history, and a whopping 71 percent of voters believe he is "too old" to be an effective president. This sentiment is shared across all demographic groups, including many of Biden's own supporters. In contrast, only 19 percent of Trump supporters view the former president as too old.
While Biden still has time to turn things around, the current trajectory is not in his favor. Trump's polarizing presence, despite facing criminal charges, still holds sway with a significant portion of the electorate. If the current polling trends continue, Trump could win over 300 Electoral College votes, well above the 270 needed to reclaim the White House.
Trump’s greatest Achilles heel of the moment may be that in the time he’s spending defending himself from so many bogus criminal charges around the country, he’s not working to ensure free and fair elections among the states. There’s not much time left to be mounting challenges, and at the moment there haven’t been many outward signs that the GOP is planning on at least trying to take advantage of the rules that Democrats have put into play with mail in ballots or absentee voting. The exception has been California, where Republicans have smartly decided to play the game and are organizing to take advantage of ballot harvesting laws in that state. Chairperson of the California Republican Party Jessica Millan Patterson stated that “These are the rules that we have been given. And we have to play by those rules. It doesn’t make any sense to only be Election Day voters. That is like only playing three quarters of a football game.”
That’s the kind of talk I want to hear from my Republican leadership. If Trump’s hands are tied up in court battles, GOP operatives around the country need to not wait for permission and get a game plan ready to win next year. Biden’s currently embroiled in fighting the lunatic base of the Democratic Party, whose antisemitic outbursts and undisciplined behavior are clearly turning the American people against them, if this polling is to be believed.
The dissatisfaction with Biden's presidency, combined with his age and economic challenges, paints a bleak picture for his reelection prospects. The road ahead is rocky, and Biden's chances of securing a second term are diminishing by the day. Of course, we all know how Republicans are adept at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Only time will tell, and it’s exactly one year away.