It was a momentous day, a historic day as the mantra goes, but basically squat changed on the ground in the House GOP Conference. Deep chasms remain between the Freedom Caucus, the Main Street Caucus, the fund-Ukraine-forever caucus, the spend-like-drunken-sailors caucus and the wink-and-nod border caucus. Greatly complicating this already complicated situation is a historically thin five-vote margin, where the Gang of Eight or some other Gang of Five will be hunting for any deviation from purity, promise, or opportunity for fame and fundraising — the latter of which was happening simultaneously with the ouster of McCarthy.
The Speaker race seems to be between insider Rep. Steve Scalise, a Southern establishment clone of McCarthy, but more likable and owning lots of sympathy for being shot by a deranged Bernie bro on a softball diamond, and Rep. Jim Jordan — who has a more real chance now with an endorsement from Trump and would certainly be the most conservative Speaker since Newt Gingerich at his height. And probably, hopefully, the most pugilistic. There may be other contenders. Dark horses (can we still say “dark horses”?) tend to thrive in these situations.
But in Rush Limbaugh’s Realsville, whoever finally gains control still has to be Speaker while somehow spanning the above-mentioned chasms. McCarthy, the ultimate inside establishment technocrat managed to do it for a while even with the sword of Damocles one-member motion to vacate threshold hanging over his scalp.
Can Jordan or Scalise or some dark horse do better? Jordan is a principled conservative beloved by many conservative Republicans for his powerful defense of Trump during the FBI operation to undermine and remove a duly elected President. Scalise is the nuts-and-bolts operator, and like McCarthy, it is not clear if there is much core. But is a philosophic core required with this fractious dynamic, or a mechanic who can make the engine run with the parts available?
The clock is ticking on the new Speaker in a way it was not on McCarthy, who had more experience herding the cats. The 45-day deal ends Nov. 15, meaning it is already down to 37 days. It is hard to see the wins coming for conservatives in that timeframe with a new Speaker.
However, on the optimistic side, it is possible that if elected, either Jordan or Scalise or someone else who cobbled together the votes could be granted a honeymoon, at least early on. If not, we are right back in the government shutdown situation, with potentially less leverage and less patience among the American people as Republicans just messaged dysfunction to the world.
Only time will tell whether removing McCarthy and the chaos that ensued will be worth it. The known risks are very high. Will the benefits be even higher? Are we even sure what the hoped-for benefits are?
