Although the conventional methods of warfare have commenced in the battle for control of Ukraine, many Americans are wrongly assuming that unless American troops are deployed as part of NATO forces promised by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, that this is just another in a long line of conflicts, wars, and skirmishes, that will have little, if any, directly damaging physical effects on the United States.
Sure, we can talk of the economic implications. We can even argue that this war stands to benefit the United States, as it perhaps provides the much-needed wakeup call to the Biden administration that reversing Trump-era energy policy in favor of putting hundreds of millions of dollars in the pocket of an aggressive Russia, enabled this costly and destructive military endeavor.
But besides the fact that another weak American President from the Democratic Party has once again drawn a red line that was ignored by a ruthless dictator, this war denotes the permanent arrival of what is sure to be the most prevalent theater of war in both the immediate, and long-term future – the cybersphere.
Just hours after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, and consistently ever since, there have been waves of cyber-attacks attacking the Ukraine. Additionally, in the weeks preceding the attacks when the Russian troop buildup at the Ukrainian border was the big news dominating the headlines, Russian hackers were already attacking western nations, as organizations like the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the FBI, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), scurried to issue alerts and held conference calls warning US entities of what the tell-tale signs of a Russian cyberattack look like.
These organizations know very well what the Russian cyber threat is capable of achieving. Just last summer, Russian-based attacks caused major disturbances in both the Energy and Beef supply chains as a result of the Colonial Pipeline and JBS Foods hacks, respectively. These disturbances pale in comparison to any wartime attacks that may materialize, especially considering the size and scope of perhaps the most wide-ranging reconnaissance hacking operation of all-time that was carried out by Russia’s Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) Group Nobelium – The SolarWinds Attack.
The attack against SolarWinds, that specifically targeted the thousands of users of their popular Orion software via a software update, victimized both private and public sector entities, and touched virtually every segment of the US economy, including critical infrastructure.
SolarWinds was just one of many reconnaissance hacks carried out by Russian cybercriminals, many of whom fall into the category of a state-sponsored APT. In fact, the template for SolarWinds was set in the 2015-2016 Petya/NotPetya hacking attacks carried out against the Ukraine by Russian-based hackers. In that attack that affected most every sector of the Ukrainian economy, hackers were also able to enter victim’s systems via an update to a popularly used software program.
Another layer of intrigue is provided via the recently announced new and enhanced partnership between Russia and fellow cyber power, China. This new cooperation intends to challenge the US as the world’s top superpower, as well as challenge NATO as the “cornerstone of international security.”
It can be argued that the weakness of current US President Joe Biden has helped to usher in this aggressive posture in the territorial ambitions of both China and Russia. Russia has long desired to reclaim Ukraine, while China has repeatedly threatened Taiwan in the aftermath of Biden’s botched Afghanistan pullout.
Eventually, with Russia being met with force from NATO, this new Sino-Russo alliance could initiate a cyber offensive that is more destructive that any in history as China is seen by many experts as the world’s top offensive cyber power. Some of China’s exploits in the cybersphere over the past several years include the hacking of a US Navy contractor affiliated with the Naval Undersea Warfare Center in Newport, Rhode Island. In addition, 2015 saw NBC publish an NSA document revealing "more than 600 corporate, private or government 'Victims of Chinese Cyber Espionage' that were attacked over a five-year period, with clusters in America's industrial centers."
If this new alliance chooses to leverage the intelligence it has collected over the years, it can have a devastating impact against the US from half a world away, potentially made worse should allies of this new alliance, cyber powers North Korea and Iran, choose to get involved.
The drama will continue as long as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine persists. With Vladimir Putin ordering Russian nuclear forces to go on high alert in response to aggressive statements by NATO countries on Sunday, in addition to the large-scale hacking operations that are sure to come, this may be the closest the world has been to nuclear war since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Julio Rivera is a business and political strategist, the Editorial Director for Reactionary Times, and a political commentator and columnist. His writing, which is focused on cybersecurity and politics, has been published by numerous websites and he is regularly seen on National and International news programming.
