New Research Suggests COVID-19 was Less Deadly in Most Age Groups than Thought in First Year of Pandemic

According to an updated review of global research, COVID-19 was less lethal across nearly every age group during the first year of the pandemic than initially thought. 

Between summer and Christmas of 2021, estimates of deaths by Stanford University’s Meta-Research Innovation Center fell by half in multiple age groups including young people, and less sharply in others. 

As reported by Just the News, the estimates - which have not yet been peer-reviewed - are not too different from the CDC’s “best estimate” of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. and since they use different age ranges, making comparisons is difficult.

The findings raise questions about continued mandates and restrictions, particularly among students who remain the lowest risk population.

METRIC co-director John Ioannidis has consistently emphasized that risk of death for non-elderly individuals was "very small" even in COVID "hotbeds." A June 2020 review of seroprevalence studies determined a median "infection fatality rate" of 0.26% overall and 0.04% for everyone under 70.

Ioannidis and METRIC postdoctoral fellow Cathrine Axfors published more refined infection fatality rate estimates in July based on 23 studies from 14 countries. They updated estimates again in December with two additional studies. 

The age group 0-19 still had the lowest estimated fatality rate with 0.0013%, or 1.3 per 100,000, but that's half the fatality rate of July's study. Also cut in half: 20-29 year-olds with a fatality rate of 0.0088% and 40-49 with 0.042%.

The only age group without a lower infection fatality rate in the December update was 60-69 year-olds, which increased to 0.65%. The community-dwelling elderly had an infection fatality rate of 2.9% and elderly overall 4.9%, but the study noted a "steeply increasing IFR with larger proportions of people" 85 and older.