Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann narrowly edged Texas Rep. Ron Paul by 152 votes to win the Iowa Straw Poll this weekend.
Bachmann received 4823 votes, Paul 4671, Tim Pawlenty 2293, Rick Santorum 1657, Herman Cain 1456, Rick Perry 718 (as a write-in candidate who was not on the ballot) Mitt Romney 567, Newt Gingrich 385, Jon Huntsman 69, and Thaddeus McCotter 35.
Here's what the results mean for the candidates:
1. Michele Bachmann: There were questions about Bachmann's organization and whether Iowans would vote for a woman and whether Pawlenty's criticism of her lack of executive experience and legislative accomplishments would hurt her. Her organization is sound. Iowans are willing to vote for a woman. And the passionate way in which Bachmann talks about issues dear to conservatives and pits herself against the establishment resonated with Iowans. Bachmann is a legitimate contender, despite some sagging poll numbers of late, and starts off at the front of the pack as the bell is officially rung on the 2012 campaign season.
2. Ron Paul: Many will dismiss Paul's near victory. It should not be. Paul's point that Republicans have come over to his views on fiscal and, to a lesser extent, on foreign policy remains true. The candidate who can appeal to libertarian-minded voters may pull out the victory in the end, especially if the field becomes more crowded in the coming months with other candidates.
3. Tim Pawlenty: His third place finish is disappointing but not fatal. How can Pawlenty get traction? How can he afford to pay his overhead? Where is the path back to relevance for Pawlenty, who is now below even Messrs. Santorum and Huntsman in some polls. With Perry's official entry into the race and Palin primed to enter, will Pawlenty's staffers be tempted to go to those of other campaigns? These are things Pawlenty will have to think about and seriously gauge in the days ahead.
4. Rick Santorum: Santorum had a better than expected finish and his role in the process as a passionate voice for the social conservative issues he cares about will intensify and given more legitimacy. Santorum's bet is to get the media exposure he has claimed he has lacked from these results.
5. Herman Cain: He has also vowed to stay in but finishing beneath Santorum could not have been encouraging to Cain. Cain needs to find a way to translate "likeability" into votes.
6. Mitt Romney: He may still play in Iowa, but Romney was neither helped nor hurt by today's result.
7. Rick Perry: He received an impressive number of write-in votes to cap off a day in which he most likely vaulted to the front of the pack with his announcement speech in South Carolina. The next month for Perry will be critical. Can he steal enough support from Bachmann, Romney, and Paul to move to the head of the field?
8. Sarah Palin: Many signs point to Palin's entering the race in the next month. Observers at the Iowa State Fair, where she appeared and was mobbed by reporters and supporters, said that had Palin officially played in the Straw Poll, she would have "walked away" with the victory. Palin seemed like a candidate readying for a prizefight this week. Only time will tell how she changes the dynamic if and when she becomes an official candidate.
9-11: Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Thaddeus McCotter: The next months for these three will be critical. Gingrich is starting to get traction again, Huntsman and McCotter need to have convincing and compelling reasons for why they are in the race.
