The President:
In the wake of the mid-term Republican victories, President George W. Bush is riding high. But he faces serious tests.
1) The most serious test facing the President remains Iraq, where his problems are intensified by a divided administration. Secretary of State Colin Powell would just as soon pursue disarmament without war and definitely wants any military action to be multilateral. Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld are intent on a change of regime in Baghdad even if it means unilateral U.S. military action. While Bush has followed Powell into the United Nations procedure, he still seems personally inclined to the Cheney-Rumsfeld position.
2) The other half of the war on terrorism is not really in the President’s control: al Qaeda. Nobody can be certain where or when the terrorists will strike again, as in Bali and Kenya. Nobody is happy with the FBI’s performance, and the CIA has its critics. The political nightmare for Bush will be a serious al Qaeda attack in the U.S. during a U.S. assault on Iraq.
3) Bush’s selection of former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger to head the blue-ribbon commission on 9/11 was simultaneously prudent and risky. It is prudent because the administration cannot afford to have a runaway commission, and Kissinger will not permit a runaway. It is risky because Kissinger is a target not only for the far left (which calls him a "war criminal") but mainstream Democrats who condemn his corporate clients.
4) Bush is up to more than fighting terrorism. During Thanksgiving week, he met for hours with economic advisers on a new tax-cutting economic stimulus. At about the same time, Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill-attending a conference in Britain-gave an interview to the Financial Times that was interpreted as advocating a tax increase. Critics wonder whether it is time to get O’Neill on the same page as Bush after two years.
5) Christian conservatives have been assured by Bush aides that the President in his 2003 State of the Union address will call for passage of a ban on partial-birth abortions as he did not in his 2002 ("axis of evil") address. The social conservatives are making clear that a) they want action on partial-birth abortion and b) they do not want White House Chief Counsel Alberto Gonzales, a Bush favorite, named to the next Supreme Court vacancy.
Campaign Committee:
The question of who will take the helm of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is still unanswered.
1) Rep. Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), the incoming Minority Leader, has unilateral authority to appoint the DCCC chief. Pelosi was the pick of the liberal wing of her party, but she is struggling early on to win some trust of the more conservative Democrats and is under pressure to name a Southerner to the all-Yankee party leadership.
2) Accordingly, rumors abounded that she was considering the man she beat in the leadership race: Rep. Martin Frost (D.), a Texas moderate and former DCCC chief. Frost privately offered to return to the DCCC post if Pelosi wants him. He has not heard from Pelosi since and is not actively campaigning for the spot. Frost is the choice of the new Democratic whip, Rep. Steny Hoyer (Md.).
3) The leading active candidate for the job is Rep. William Jefferson (La.). He is the pick of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC), which has no members in the top leadership spots. But Jefferson has detractors in labor because of his support for free trade. Pelosi cannot afford to upset the CBC-a critical part of her base.
4) Also in the running are Ohio liberal Rep. Sherrod Brown and California Reps. Mike Thompson and Bob Matsui.
GOP-Labor:
Republican performance in the lameduck session suggests an abandonment of the GOP plan to try to woo labor unions.
1) Republicans gave in to the trial lawyers to get the terrorism insurance bill passed, but held firm on personnel flexibility in the Homeland Security bill. This is the opposite of the strategy the White House had exhibited until now: fighting to defund the coffers of the left (trial lawyers) while trying to court the unions.
2) An exception is New York, where Gov. George Pataki (R.) assured himself an easily reelection by winning the support of a handful of union bosses. This paid off for Pataki, but some New Yorkers wonder if it will help the state party as a whole.
3) Newly elected Alaska Gov. Frank Murkowski (R.) had indicated privately his inclination to name State Teamsters Leader Jerry Hood to the Senate vacancy he was leaving behind. National GOP leaders have cautioned Murkowski against that, contending that ex-DNC member Hood is Republican only on the ANWR question.
