Solid South:
A Republican sweep of the South, highlighted by a handful of surprising wins in Georgia, affects the regional political picture for at least the next decade. Georgia is now a GOP bastion, and South Carolina has become a one-party state. 1) Rep. Saxby Chambliss’s (R.) come-from-behind upset win over Sen. Max Cleland (D.) in Georgia shifted the entire playing field in the battle for control of the Senate. Chambliss’s ability to beat a triple-amputee veteran by using defense as an issue shows Bush’s colossal influence here—Cleland voted to block Bush’s Homeland security bill, and those votes cost him his seat. 2) The biggest surprise in Georgia was former State Sen. Sonny Perdue’s (R.) ousting Gov. Roy Barnes (D.). Barnes, as recently as this summer, was considered untouchable—in fact, a potential national candidate. Barnes’s collapse gets some credit for Cleland’s parallel drop. Perdue will be the first GOP governor here in 130 years. 3) Democratic state lawmakers were over-ambitious here, trying to draw four new Democratic House seats. In the 12th District, embattled political legacy Champ Walker’s (D.) past record and campaign behavior handed a big win to college president Max Burns (R.), and State Sen. Phil Gingrey (R.) upset 2000 nominee Roger Kahn (D.) in the 11th—both districts were drawn to be Democratic strongholds. 4) In addition to the Bush factor, credit goes to new state GOP Chairman Ralph Reed, former Christian Coalition head. Reed saw real possibilities in the 11th and 12th where others saw none. Reed also organized one of the most successful Republican Get Out the Vote efforts in recent years, allowing his candidates to upend the late poll numbers. Republicans here also knocked off the floor leaders in both legislative chambers and seized majorities in the state house and senate. 5) In South Carolina the twin victories of Rep. Lindsey Graham (R.) and former Rep. Mark Sanford (R.) for senator and governor, respectively, establish South Carolina as a one-party state. While both men are conservative, they span a fairly wide ideological and geographical spectrum, and Gresham Barrett’s (R.) easy retention of Graham’s seat (which used to be Democratic) shows the Republican trend that began in 1994 has become almost complete. 6) Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman (D.), has apparently failed to beat Rep. Bob Riley (R.), completing the Republican sweep of the three Southern Democratic incumbents up this year. Mike Rogers (R.) held onto Riley’s seat. 7) Across these three states, Republicans will control 17 of the 26 House seats and four of the six Senate seats. More important are the recent trends—which all favor the GOP. 8) Add to this, Republican retentions in North Carolina’s Senate seat and 8th District race (Rep. Robin Hayes)—both contests Democrats thought they would win—and the picture looks bleak for Southern Democrats. 9) The two bright spots for Democrats were Arkansas and Tennessee. In the Democrats’ lone takeover in the Senate, Atty. Gen. Mark Pryor (D.) knocked off Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R.). In Tennessee, Democrats have reversed the trend since 1994 with takeovers in the Governor race and one of the open House seats. New England:
Many of the brightest points for Republicans came out of the Northeast, typically a Democratic bastion. 1) Republicans ran the table in New Hampshire, the one conservative Northeastern state, highlighted by Rep. John Sununu’s (R.) win over Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D.). Shaheen has been the Democrats’ all-star in recent years, and she may not be finished. But defeating her wards off any real Democratic uprising for at least a few years. 2) Businessman Craig Benson (R.) took back the governorship for the GOP in New Hampshire and State Rep. Jeb Bradley (R.) held onto Sununu’s House seat. The GOP also made gains in the state senate. 3) In Massachusetts, Olympics chief Mitt Romney (R.) knocked off State Treasurer Shannon O’Brien (D.) on the strength of a late surge. While Republican prospects are still dim here, retaining this post is a big win for the GOP. 4) Retiree Don Carcieri (R.) made a three-time loser of former State Sen. Myrth York (D), and Vermont State Treasurer Jim Douglas (R.) upset Lt. Gov. Doug Racine (D.) to keep Vermont from becoming a one-party state. Gov. Jim Rowland’s (R.) easy reelection in Connecticut puts five of six New England states under GOP governors, with only Maine—where Rep. John Baldacci (D.) won—as an exception.
