Overview:
Republicans will control both chambers of Congress in addition to the White House after unprecedented Election Day gains, thanks largely to President George W. Bush’s parlaying his high approval ratings into votes for Republicans around the country, along with a lack of Democratic vision.
1) Spearheaded by an upset in Georgia with Rep. Saxby Chambliss (R.) unseating Sen. Max Cleland (D.), plus tough retentions in New Hampshire and Colorado and a takeover in Missouri, Bush’s leadership gave Republicans the upper chamber. Also key: Democratic missteps in Minnesota.
2) Republicans, as we expected, make small gains in the House because of superior GOP fundraising in the key races and the absence of a coherent Democratic message. The increased majority will not change things much in Washington, but it carries historic and symbolic significance. Not since 1934 has the President’s party gained seats in both chambers in a midterm election.
3) Democrats gain in governorships, but not as much as they had hoped. The real story here is that over half the races saw the party in power lose. This is the most tangible result of the nation’s anemic economy.
4) One of the biggest stories is Republican dominance of the South, with four upsets in Georgia and big wins in South Carolina making those states GOP strongholds for the foreseeable future.
5) The "proxy" races mostly fell down in favor of President Bush, driving home his prominence in the Republicans’ big night.
Bush Factor:
A Republican sweep in Texas, a win in the Minnesota Senate race and a stand-off in South Dakota, plus Gov. Jeb Bush’s (R.) reelection in Florida, give the President a near-perfect night in the "proxy" races.
1) Democrats still bitter about the end of the 2000 Presidential election call Florida "the scene of the crime." This made defeating Gov. Bush the top goal of Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe. Bush’s handy win makes him the first Republican Governor ever to be reelected in Florida. It also erases as a factor going into 2004 President Bush’s slim victory in 2000.
2) Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R.) won big, as did Atty. Gen. John Cornyn (R.), running for Senate. Just as critical, Republicans won the lieutenant governorship and seized control of the state House. Not only did the Texas GOP win big, it also beat the best players the Democrats had to offer. With the "dream ticket" knocked off, the Democrats’ bench here looks empty. Expect the Republicans to soon win the majority in the state’s congressional delegation and dominate Texas politics for years to come.
3) Bush twisted the arm of South Dakota Rep. John Thune (R.) until Thune agreed to challenge Sen. Tim Johnson (D.). Bush also came to the state repeatedly, presenting a direct challenge to his chief rival in Washington, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D.). The race was tight enough that it cannot be called a loss for Bush, but a win would have been a serious coup.
4) Similarly, former St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman (R.) entered the race at Bush’s request. Sen. Paul Wellstone’s (D.) death turned the race upside down and brought heavy national media attention on the brief candidacy of former Vice President Walter Mondale (D.). Democrats’ tacky act in turning Wellstone’s memorial service into a partisan pep-rally stirred national resentment towards the party and helped Republicans win in Minnesota and beyond.
5) Bush’s presence elsewhere and candidates’ successful embrace of him throughout the country are the first real examples of Bush cashing in his political capital. Bush supporters in Washington upset that Bush had not translated his popularity into conservative legislation are now thrilled that he used it to take back the Senate.
6) September 11 played a role by scaring Democrats away from making real attacks on a popular wartime President (see below for more on Democrats’ problems).
Democrats:
Blame for Democratic failings in congressional races is hard to place.
1) Minority Leader Dick Gephardt (D.-Mo.) lost six seats in a circumstance where history dictated he should gain. Gephardt led his caucus into 2002 as a fairly centrist party, talking about easy issues such as Social Security and corporate greed, but staying away from criticism of Bush’s war and calls to roll back the tax cuts. No Democrats in tough races ran against the war except for Rep. Julia Carson (D.-Ind.)-who won.
2) Party liberals-in a faction led by Minority Whip Nancy Pelosi (D.-Calif.)-blame this "cowardice" for the loss. There is some truth here: Democrats afraid to call for tax hikes or peace with Hussein were unable to present any clear vision to voters.
