Spending:
House conservatives, led by Majority Whip Tom DeLay (R.-Tex.) and the Republican Study Committee (formerly the Conservative Action Team), are fighting their own appropriators and the Democrats to keep spending low.
1) The whip organization believes that if Congress passes high spending bills before the elections, this will deflate the conservative base and hurt Republicans in the mid-term election. This is how they explain the 1998 GOP losses.
2) A "continuing resolution," keeping the government alive at current spending levels until after the election, would ward off that political disaster, but could defang the conservative political argument against overspending.
3) Appropriators, accordingly, believe a CR would increase spending, although conservatives say it will save money. The only clear effect is that it will take spending off the table as a political issue.
Current House Outlook:
Republicans +3: 226-208-1 and continued Republican control.
South Dakota Gov. Bill Janklow (R.) has run a lackluster campaign and now trails the dynamic, charming political legacy Stephanie Herseth (D.) in the state’s at-large congressional race.
Utah State Rep. John Swallow (R.) has not gained on Rep. Jim Matheson (D.) as had been expected, and the 2nd district is now a likely Democratic retention. Kansas Rep. Dennis Moore (D.) has held his own against airline pilot Adam Taff (R.) and is now the favorite in his re-election bid.
In Iowa, as well, the dynamic has shifted. Once-endangered incumbent Rep. Tom Latham (R.) has turned up his campaign and a recent poll shows him above 50%. The most vulnerable Iowa Republican incumbent is now Rep. Jim Leach (R.).
Rep. Connie Morella (R.-Md.) benefited from the primary victory of State Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D.) over State Rep. Mark Shriver (D.), but the well-connected Democrat looks poised to overtake Morella.
Kentucky Rep. Anne Northup (R.) has suffered from recent revelations about apparent abuses of power and could soon move into underdog status.
In Georgia, Republican hopes of winning one of the four open seats are slipping after the primaries, while the new seats in Nevada and Colorado have swung into the Republican column.
New Seats:
Reapportionment has shuffled 12 of the 435 House seats among 18 states. This year, four states (California, Colorado, Nevada and North Carolina) will each gain one seat in Congress while Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Texas pick up two seats apiece. Besides these 12 new seats, mapmakers in state legislatures carved up the districts of a few incumbents to make new seats.
In California, Rep. Steve Horn’s (R.) seat vanished, making room for a Democratic 39th district.
Georgia Democrats paired Reps. Bob Barr (R.) and John Linder (R.) so that they could create a third new House district in addition to the two new seats through reapportionment.
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Iowa also all redrew their maps drastically enough to bring new Congressional districts into existence.
The races in the 17 new districts being added this year offset the loss of 13 congressmen who have had their seats wiped out (7 Democrats and 6 Republicans) and the combination of 8 incumbents into 4 districts. We call all four incumbent v. incumbent matchups in the GOP’s favor-Democrats should lose 11 in those 17 eliminated seats while Republicans will lose 6.
Current Senate Outlook:
Republicans +1: 50-49-1 and Republican control.
In South Dakota, Sen. Tim Johnson (D.) has improved versus Rep. John Thune (R.), and is now favored to retain his seat.
But his Minnesota neighbor, liberal Sen. Paul Wellstone (D.), now looks ready to fall. Although he leads in the polls, the Iraq war among other issues will hurt the senator from the left as the election approaches. We now favor former St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman (R.) in this contest.
None of the vulnerable Republican seats look likely to fall, although Colorado, Texas, Arkansas and New Hampshire could all swing to the Democrats in the next six weeks.
Tennessee:
Former Gov. Lamar Alexander (R.) is simply a popular man running in a Republican-tending state. Rep. Bob Clement (D.), running against GOP privatization plans and on his record as a veteran, has trouble winning over the voters who know and love Alexander.
Alexander has had no problem winning over the former supporters of Rep. Ed Bryant (R.), who challenged Alexander from the right in the brief primary that followed the surprise retirement announcement of Sen. Fred Thompson (R.).
