During a thursday discussion on Human Events Daily, host Jack Posobiec and former Marine and ballistics expert Tom Sauer pushed back on speculation surrounding the forensic evidence in the assassination of Charlie Kirk, particularly claims suggesting the possibility of another shooter.
Sauer dismissed that idea outright, stating, “It's next to impossible. I mean, was there another shooter just feet away who fired the exact same type of round and that Tyler Robinson was a patsy or something? No, but just like the simple forensics and the ballistics report, I mean, that's enough right there.” The comments come as court filings and forensic reports have indicated that while bullet fragments recovered from the scene were too damaged for a conclusive match, other evidence—including casing matches and DNA—has tied Robinson to the weapon.
According to Sauer, the type of discrepancy being raised by the defense does not align with how ballistic evidence typically behaves in real-world conditions.
“Look, if it turns out that Robinson had a, you know, he had his .30-06, you know, rifle, a hunting rifle, and then Charlie had been killed with a 9-millimeter pistol round, okay, that would be some sort of doubt, I suppose, obviously would be, but then just simply not what happened,” Sauer said.
The fatal shooting occurred in September 2025 at Utah Valley University, where Kirk was struck by a single rifle round fired from a distance during a public event. Posobiec pressed Sauer on whether ballistic testing can reliably reproduce identical results, asking if bullets always behave consistently when fired under similar conditions.
Sauer said they do not. “No, it's never consistent,” Sauer explained. “There’s so many variables when you're dealing with a piece of metal or lead that's going… fast at various conditions… it's not every bullet is perfectly uniform all the time.” He continued, noting that external factors such as wind, angle of impact, and material resistance can all affect a projectile’s behavior. “When rounds impact things, they do very strange things in a manner that is not scientifically predictable.”
Summing up the concept in simpler terms, Sauer added, “Bullets do weird things. Bullets do weird things.” The discussion also addressed fragmentation, a key issue in the case after reports indicated the recovered bullet was heavily damaged upon impact. Sauer said that outcome is consistent with the use of a high-powered rifle such as a .30-06.
“And so the idea that, that, you know, in this case that it did fragment… is that something that you would see as consistent with the firing of a .30-06? Yeah, absolutely. A hundred percent,” he said.
Sauer dismissed that idea outright, stating, “It's next to impossible. I mean, was there another shooter just feet away who fired the exact same type of round and that Tyler Robinson was a patsy or something? No, but just like the simple forensics and the ballistics report, I mean, that's enough right there.” The comments come as court filings and forensic reports have indicated that while bullet fragments recovered from the scene were too damaged for a conclusive match, other evidence—including casing matches and DNA—has tied Robinson to the weapon.
According to Sauer, the type of discrepancy being raised by the defense does not align with how ballistic evidence typically behaves in real-world conditions.
“Look, if it turns out that Robinson had a, you know, he had his .30-06, you know, rifle, a hunting rifle, and then Charlie had been killed with a 9-millimeter pistol round, okay, that would be some sort of doubt, I suppose, obviously would be, but then just simply not what happened,” Sauer said.
The fatal shooting occurred in September 2025 at Utah Valley University, where Kirk was struck by a single rifle round fired from a distance during a public event. Posobiec pressed Sauer on whether ballistic testing can reliably reproduce identical results, asking if bullets always behave consistently when fired under similar conditions.
Sauer said they do not. “No, it's never consistent,” Sauer explained. “There’s so many variables when you're dealing with a piece of metal or lead that's going… fast at various conditions… it's not every bullet is perfectly uniform all the time.” He continued, noting that external factors such as wind, angle of impact, and material resistance can all affect a projectile’s behavior. “When rounds impact things, they do very strange things in a manner that is not scientifically predictable.”
Summing up the concept in simpler terms, Sauer added, “Bullets do weird things. Bullets do weird things.” The discussion also addressed fragmentation, a key issue in the case after reports indicated the recovered bullet was heavily damaged upon impact. Sauer said that outcome is consistent with the use of a high-powered rifle such as a .30-06.
“And so the idea that, that, you know, in this case that it did fragment… is that something that you would see as consistent with the firing of a .30-06? Yeah, absolutely. A hundred percent,” he said.
