Wisconsin's results offer a paradox. On the one hand, conservative voters secured a policy win by passing a constitutional amendment that bans private funding for elections, a proposal Republicans championed as a safeguard against the kind of outside funding seen during the 2020 election cycle. On the other hand, those same voters failed to rally behind Brad Schimel, a former GOP attorney general, who lost to Crawford in a state that remains one of the country's most reliable bellwethers.
The Crawford-Schimel race was technically nonpartisan, but outside spending drew clear partisan lines. Liberal groups spent over $1.2 million backing Crawford, compared to $900,000 from conservatives supporting Schimel, according to the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign. This reflects the growing nationalization of judicial races and the state's continued mobilization capacity of progressive networks.
Turnout has played a significant role. While Florida saw relatively strong participation from Republican voters, Wisconsin's electorate was described by analysts as composed of lower-propensity voters, especially among conservatives. Republican insiders cited underperformance in key suburban and rural areas as a driving factor behind Schimel's loss. Despite supporting the voter ID amendment, many of these same voters either failed to turn out for the judicial race or split their tickets. A solid post-mortem needs to be done by the GOP to find out what's going on in the minds of Wisconsin Republicans.
Florida tells a different story. Trump-endorsed candidates delivered solid wins. Randy Fine, running in Florida's 10th Congressional District, won with over 58 percent of the vote, exceeding expectations in a district where Democrats hoped to compete. Jimmy Patronis, Florida's chief financial officer, captured Florida's 11th District with roughly 54 percent. Although slightly tighter, his victory was never seriously in doubt.
Fine's performance is particularly noteworthy. He faced a challenge from Democrat Shante Munns, who attacked him over controversial education and LGBTQ legislation. Still, Fine's message resonated with the electorate, and turnout in Republican areas outpaced Democratic strongholds. Florida's Republican base continues to display high levels of engagement and strong alignment with Trump-backed figures. A Trump endorsement still matters.
These outcomes illustrate a growing divergence in how Republican strength manifests across different regions. In Wisconsin, Republican-favored policies can win at the ballot box even as Republican candidates fall short. In Florida, the GOP has built a reliable infrastructure that produces consistent wins up and down the ballot. Republicans must find candidates or methods to turn their lower-propensity voters around or face a big problem next year.
Democrats are proving once again that they are highly motivated in battleground states. Crawford's win was part of a deliberate strategy by national Democrats to secure control of state courts, particularly where judicial rulings may influence redistricting or election law. That effort appears to be yielding results, even when Republican policy positions find favor with voters.
The lesson for national Republicans is clear. Winning the message is not the same as winning the race. In Wisconsin, favorable polling on voter ID did not translate into victory for a Republican candidate. In Florida, high turnout and organizational strength gave Republican candidates a decisive edge. 2026 Republicans must recognize that cultural wins and policy positions are insufficient. They need intense ground games, effective candidate recruitment, and voter engagement efforts in competitive states.
Democrats will likely continue prioritizing judicial races and targeted turnout in key battlegrounds. Their success in Wisconsin underscores how even a low-turnout special election can shift the balance of power in meaningful ways. The GOP has a dual challenge: find a way to be less radioactive to the Democrats to some extent and find candidates who can convince Republicans to actually vote for their own candidates in non-presidential election year races.
These special elections did not change the national landscape overnight but offered an essential snapshot of what may come. Florida stands as a model of Republican discipline and consistency. Wisconsin highlights the risks of assuming policy victories will automatically drive electoral ones. The road to 2026 will not be won by messaging alone. It will be won by the campaigns that can mobilize the right voters at the right time in the right states.
