South Korea is threatening to send armaments and material to Ukraine after its historic enemy North Korea sent troops to Russia to support its war effort, Business Insider reported Friday. The North Koreans have reportedly entered combat with Russian forces against Ukraine.
South Korea’s increasing willingness to assist Ukraine came after an emergency National Security Council meeting last week where South Korea condemned the North’s decision to send troops to Russia. Its leadership also suggested South Korea could send weapons to Ukraine to counteract the North’s belligerence. On Tuesday, South Korea went further and said it could also send military personnel to Ukraine to keep an eye on North Korea’s movements.
Russia's foreign ministry said there would be "security consequences" for South Korea if it decided to participate in the war, but there also might be military consequences for Russia if South Korea contributes armaments.
"South Korean weapons could potentially make a significant difference on both Ukraine's defensive capabilities and offensive capabilities," Jeremy Chan, a China and northeast Asia analyst at the Eurasia Group, told Business Insider.
South Korea has had collective US arms and weapons systems since the formation of the Demilitarized Zone between North and South when a ceasefire was proclaimed in the Korean War in 1953. The South Korean arsenal encompasses anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems that could be used by Ukraine to fend off Russian attacks, Chan said. He also noted that the South has "world-class" K9 Howitzer guns, K2 tanks, and multiple-rocket-launcher systems.
Seoul has indirectly supplied 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine by first sending the arms to NATO countries like the US and Poland, who then sent their own shells to Ukraine.
Ellen Kim, a Center for Strategic and International Studies expert on Korea, told Business Insider that South Korea could also assist Ukraine with intelligence reports on North Korea’s access to weapons and how it is trained to fight wars.
"South Korea could assist in a psychological warfare campaign against North Korean soldiers who may not want to fight in the war," said Kim.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Wednesday that he believes North Korea had deployed its troops to Russia previous to any announcement, even as he warned them against taking part in combat operations.
If South Korea decides to assist Ukraine with arms, it would have to violate its own ban on providing military aid to countries that are at war or have the law changed in its parliament. Chan told Business Insider that such a political objective would be extremely difficult given the dynamics in the national assembly.
"North Korea's actions would have to present a clearer and more immediate threat to South Korea's national security before we would expect the national assembly to authorize export of weapons to Ukraine," he said.
South Korea has no desire to sabotage its diplomatic relationship with Russia beyond repair since Moscow is leading a BRICS-led shakeup of the world order. Such an occurrence could isolate the South in the region and augment the power of the North.
