Volodymyr Zelensky’s "victory plan," presented with great fanfare to Ukraine’s parliament, signals a leader clinging to delusions rather than confronting the grim realities of the war he insists on continuing. Zelensky’s plan, which calls for a formal invitation to NATO and expanded military strikes deep into Russia (things that have consistently been rejected out of hand by his Western benefactors), reveals a deep disconnect between Kyiv’s consistently unhinged rhetoric and its rapidly deteriorating military situation on the ground.
For months now, Russia has steadily advanced in eastern Ukraine, consolidating gains and showing no signs of slowing. Far from turning the tide, Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive and its 2024 incursion into Russia’s Kursk region were both catastrophic miscalculations that failed to deliver the expected miraculous breakthroughs expected by the West’s buffonish pundit class. The counteroffensive, widely touted by Kyiv and its Western backers, not only failed to dislodge Russian forces but also drained Ukrainian resources and morale in the process, all while Russia sat back comfortably in defense. This summer’s Kursk incursion was even worse, funneling the Ukrainian army’s best units into a kill zone where they have been slowly ground down into nothing without offering any strategic benefit whatsoever.
At the heart of Zelensky’s plan is the hope that Ukraine can somehow rally enough international support to keep fighting indefinitely, in the process even potentially pulling in its Western sugar daddies to fight for it directly. But this expectation seems detached from both geopolitical and military realities. NATO, for all its rhetorical support of Ukraine, has been clear that full membership is extremely unlikely in the near term. The West is also wary of provoking a direct confrontation with Russia, particularly given the obvious nuclear implications of the conflict. Zelensky’s demand to lift restrictions on long-range strikes into Russian territory is equally demented, as it risks dragging NATO into a much larger, and far more dangerous, conflict.
Perhaps the most glaring flaw in Zelensky’s plan is its refusal to recognize that Ukraine cannot maintain its outdated borders indefinitely. The refusal to negotiate over eastern Ukraine, even as Russian forces continue to make significant and constant gains, seems increasingly foolish. Ukraine’s military is stretched thin and breaking down, and without some series of unforeseeable miracles, it is now only a matter of time before one of its major frontlines collapses under the weight of Russian pressure.
In addition to these strategic blunders, Ukraine faces an even more immediate and dire problem: a growing lack of manpower. The prolonged conflict has left the country’s pool of able-bodied men severely depleted, and the government now faces a terrible choice. Either it can implement a massive draft of the remaining men between the ages of 18 and 25—an action that might stave off a complete collapse of the front lines for a time—or it can allow Russia to continue its advances unabated. But drafting these young men, many of whom have already faced repeated rounds of conscription, risks creating a demographic death spiral in the medium and long term from which Ukraine may never recover.
The country’s youth population is already shrinking, and sending what is left of its future workforce into the jaws of Russia’s military death machine will doom Ukraine to long-term economic and demographic decline. The consequences of such a decision could stretch far beyond the current war, potentially leaving Ukraine without the human capital it needs to rebuild once the conflict is finally over. This harsh reality underscores the limited options available to Kyiv, as Zelensky’s government continues to rely on the hope of a military solution that looks increasingly like a complete fantasy.
What Zelensky refuses to acknowledge is that the war has reached a point where total victory is not a realistic option. His insistence on holding every inch of Ukrainian territory now risks leading to an even greater strategic disaster.
Instead of pushing for some kind of military victory that is now obviously impossible, Ukraine would do well to submit to a negotiated settlement. This would mean ceding most of eastern Ukraine to Russia, including both the Donbas and Kharkiv regions (both of which are peopled with a majority of Russian speakers), and agreeing to forego NATO membership in the future. Such concessions would be painful, but they may be necessary to preserve what remains of Ukrainian sovereignty and prevent a total collapse. By continuing to pursue an increasingly unattainable goal, Zelensky risks dragging his country into a prolonged, unwinnable conflict that could leave Ukraine an unproductive and abandoned wasteland in the long term.
Ultimately, Zelensky’s victory plan seems less like a realistic roadmap to peace and more like a final, desperate roll of the dice. But as the military situation worsens and the possibility of a major frontline collapse looms, Ukraine may need to reconsider its approach. If it fails to do so, the consequences could be catastrophic, not only for Ukraine but for all of Europe.
