The situation has become particularly dire as Tehran, looking to defend its battered ally Hezbollah, is now poised to enter the conflict directly. Israel, having secured significant victories against its adversaries, is preparing for major strikes against Iran in response to the massive barrage of ballistic missiles it endured on October 1st.
And the pressure is now mounting for the United States to follow suit, with many, including some ostensibly on the MAGA right like billionaire href="https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1844559980726206672">Bill Ackman, encouraging the U.S. to openly engage in hostilities against Iran in hopes of damaging their nuclear program.
But as the drumbeats of war grow louder, America must resist the temptation to get drawn into a war with Iran—one that would be catastrophic not only for the region but also for U.S. interests and stability across the globe.
The most immediate and glaring reason to avoid war with Iran is the painful memory of America’s recent entanglements in the Middle East. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan drained trillions of dollars from the U.S. economy, cost thousands of American lives, and destabilized entire regions, leading to further chaos in places like Syria and Libya. After two decades of continuous military involvement in the region, Americans remain fatigued by war and have little appetite for another conflict that could drag on for years, if not decades.
Iran, with a population of over 80 million and with a sophisticated military infrastructure (to say nothing of its vast and mountainous terrain), is not Iraq or Afghanistan. Any U.S.-led campaign against Iran would not be a simple "surgical" operation but would inevitably escalate into a protracted and bloody conflict with no obvious exit strategy for the U.S. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, its vast network of militias, and its capability to disrupt global oil markets through the Strait of Hormuz make it a formidable adversary.
Furthermore, the idea that this war could be quick or merely consist of a series of one-off strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities is a dangerous illusion (one that figures like Ackman appear to be willfully engaging in).
If the U.S. did actually attempt to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, the response would almost certainly be a massive attack by Iran on America’s far-flung and poorly defended series of bases and diplomatic venues. These attacks would likely involve a simultaneous assault from drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, an attack that the U.S. is simply unprepared to fend off. Such an attack would very likely result in significant U.S. casualties, something very likely to suck the U.S. deeper into conflict with Iran.
In addition, Iran would also be likely to cut off the Strait of Hormuz, which would have disastrous consequences for the U.S. economy and domestic stability. The global oil market, already fragile, could face unprecedented disruption. An incredible 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes through the strait, and even a partial blockade would send oil prices skyrocketing. leading to inflationary pressures at home and crippling energy costs across the globe. If this happens, it would be almost impossible for the U.S. Navy to unblock the strait with anything short of a full U.S. invasion of the southern Iranian coast. The risk of spiraling escalation in such a scenario should be obvious.
It’s important to remember that Israel, despite its longstanding fear of an Iranian threat, is not defenseless. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have shown tremendous success in their fight against both Hamas and Hezbollah. Over the past year, they have dealt significant blows to these organizations, demonstrating their military prowess and intelligence capabilities. While Iran’s involvement raises the stakes, Israel remains one of the most capable militaries in the world, and it has the full diplomatic and economic support of the United States.
A U.S. military commitment is not necessary for Israel to maintain its security, and a more restrained American approach could be equally effective without the costs of a direct confrontation.
In light of these considerations, the United States must not allow itself to be drawn into a war with Iran. The costs—for both America and MAGA— are simply too high.
