But that’s the catch. In 2016, RealClearPolitics itself ultimately forecast the election as a 272-266 nailbiter…for Clinton. In 2020, they forecast it as a 319-219 blowout for Biden. Of these, 2020 was closer, particularly given the close margins in battleground states, but neither result ultimately materialized. The lesson: polls can get things wrong. Sometimes, they get entire elections wrong. Consistently.
We know that the average Trump-supporting reader will be inclined to scoff at that in both these cases, President Trump outperformed the polls, which just goes to show that 2024 should be even more over than it looks. After all, Trump only leads by 0.8 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average right now; if that held, it’d be the first time he won the popular vote, and also more than enough for a battleground state rout. They might also point out that President Trump is currently making even supposedly safe blue states like Virginia competitive. And this is after Trump was spuriously convicted of a crime, the thing which Democrats were sure would rescue them from their polling slump!
Yes, granted, all of that is true, but nonetheless, we feel compelled to offer a word of caution. Pollsters, 2016 and 2020 notwithstanding, are not stupid. They learn. They know they got those races wrong, and have tried to correct. In many cases, this has been successful; in fact, pollsters were arguably too pro-Republican during the 2022 midterms. Moreover, polls are snapshots which inevitably require the pollster to make certain assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. The assumption they are making right now is that voters who support Trump will turn up in sufficient numbers to propel what looks to be a decisive Trump victory.
There’s just one problem: Trump has flipped a longstanding dynamic in the electorate. For decades, Republicans were known to be the party which captured college-educated, high propensity voters who turn up reliably on election days. This led to many dominant Republican performances in midterms (see: 2010 and 2014), but to underwhelming presidential results, when lower propensity voters were more likely to turn up as well. Turnout, during this period, was something which people assumed would favor the Democrats, who would allegedly win if everybody voted.
That is now not only no longer true, but according to a new report from the New York Times, it is now opposite day. According to the Times, the most reliable voters – those who voted both in 2022 and in the 2024 primaries – support Biden over Trump by 5 points. Among those who only voted in 2022, Biden still leads, though only by 1 point. Among those who voted in 2020, but not since, meanwhile, Trump leads by 2 points, 44-42.
However, it is among the least engaged – people who have never voted at all – where Trump racks up big numbers. Among them, he leads Biden by a whopping 14 points. In particular, that number includes young and non-white voters, who have switched from Biden to Trump in numbers which should keep every Democrat strategist up at night. Or at least, they would keep them up at night, if those people did actually vote.
Unsurprisingly, President Trump’s campaign has already begun doing the heavy lifting when it comes to messaging to these people. For instance, he has taken an agnostic stance on abortion, which matches the priorities of these groups (most of whom are left-leaning voters who favor a liberal abortion regime). For another, he has trumpeted his campaign’s revolutionary approach, something else which appeals to these voters, who “want fundamental changes to America, not merely a promised return to normalcy,” according to the Times. Trump is most definitely offering that, and it is set to go over brilliantly…again, assuming these people actually vote.
Which brings us back to the polls. Once more, polls are snapshots: they make assumptions about what sorts of people will turn out on election day. Right now, the assumptions they are making are clearly pro-Trump assumptions. While this is encouraging, seeing as it indicates where the smart money is, it is not a self-fulfilling prophecy. Which is why, if you are thrilled by the polls, then the best advice we can offer is not to rest on your laurels and smugly wait for victory, but rather to spend every day of the next four months and change making sure that the actual electorate proves those polls right.
The infrastructure is there. A recent Politico piece notes, for example, that Turning Point USA has become a “force multiplier” for President Trump’s campaign through its Get-Out-the-Vote (GOTV) efforts in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan. But while such efforts are welcome, they are ultimately new kids on the block compared with the Democrats’ massive organizing efforts when it comes to turning out voters. And while many of the Left’s organizations may be mired in internecine doctrinal battles, we do not think it’s a stretch to say that their voter turnout operations need no motivation beyond the name at the top of the Republican ticket to make them get serious when summer is over and campaign season sets in. Not to mention, large numbers of voters remain undecided. In other words, turning out pro-Trump voters and persuading fence-sitters remains vital if we want to get from leading by 44-42 to a 50 percent plus one majority. In that effort, friendly polling numbers should embolden the Right, not enervate it.
So yes, celebrate the polling numbers. Crow about them. Heck, use them to demoralize the Left; if they think the election’s a foregone conclusion, many of them will pronounce themselves “just so tired” and check out altogether. But do not let them make you complacent. Do not let them make you lazy. Do not let them make you take victory for granted. It is not. The only poll that counts is on election day, so make sure you show up, and make sure you get everyone you can to show up, if you want to make sure that poll goes the right way.
