Politics

Bush Increases Lead in Electoral College

In August and September, the momentum in the presidential campaign shifted dramatically in favor of President Bush and against John Kerry, a shift clearly reflected in state as well as national polls.

In our June 21 issue, HUMAN EVENTS surveyed the most recently published statewide polls pitting Bush against Kerry. At that time there were 42 states where polls had tested the match-up. Bush led in 25 of those states, with 264 electoral votes. Kerry led in 16, with 236 electoral votes. One state, New Hampshire, was tied. When un-polled states considered likely to go to either Bush or Kerry were factored into the analysis, Bush led 284 to 250.

Since then Bush has lengthened his lead.

A survey conducted last week indicates there are 46 states where polls have tested the match-up between Bush and Kerry. Bush leads in 30 of these states, with 307 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 14, with 201 electoral votes. Two states, Colorado and Maine, are tied. Of the four states (Delaware, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Wyoming) and the District of Columbia where no polls have been published in this presidential race, it is reasonable to assume Kerry will win the District of Columbia and Delaware, while Bush will win Nebraska, North Dakota and Wyoming.

All of the polls cited below have margins of error, of course, and a few are three or four months old. But if you give the tied states of Colorado and Maine to Bush and Kerry respectively, grant our predictions in the un-polled states, and assume that the surveys gathered here are accurate indicators of how each polled state would vote, an election held today would yield a 327-to-211 victory for Bush.

Bush Leads
STATE
POLLSTER, DATE, & MOE (+/-)
BUSH
KERRY
ELECT-ORAL VOTES
Alabama
Capital Survey 8/30-31 4.6%
54
34
9
Alaska
Dittman Research 6/23-30 4.3%
56
33
3
Arizona
Market Solutions 9/3-5 4%
54
38
10
Arkansas
Zogby/WSJ 8/30-9/3 4.1%
48
46
6
Florida
SurveyUSA 9/12-14 4.1%
51
45
27
Georgia
Strategic Vision 8/13-16 3%
58
36
15
Idaho
Greg Smith & Assoc. 6/8-10,14 5
55
25
4
Indiana
Research 2000 9/7-9 4%
54
38
11
Iowa
Moore Information 9/7-8 4%
51
42
7
Kansas
SurveyUSA 9/7-9 4%
60
35
6
Kentucky
SurveyUSA 8/13-15 3.8%
56
39
8
Louisiana
Marketing Research 8/31-9/2 4%
53
36
9
Minnesota
Pioneer Press 9/11-14 4%
46
44
10
Mississippi
Mississippi University 4/5-21 5.8%
55
34
6
Missouri
SurveyUSA 9/7-9 3.9%
48
46
11
Montana
Mason-Dixon 5/24-26 4%
53
33
3
Nevada
SurveyUSA 9/11-13 4.4%
51
47
5
New Mexico
Research and Polling 8/27-9/1 3%
45
42
5
N. Carolina
Research 2000 8/8-11 4%
48
45
15
Ohio
Strategic Vision 9/10-12 3%
52
42
20
Oklahoma
Wilson Research 9/10-12 4.4%
59
29
7
Pennsylvania
CNN/Gallup/USA Today 9/4-7 4%
48
47
21
S. Carolina
Global Strategy 9/7-9 4%
54
38
8
S. Dakota
Argus Leader 5/19-20 4.5%
50
35
3
Tennessee
SurveyUSA 7/31-8/2 4.2%
48
46
11
Texas
Scripps-Howard 5/3-15 3%
58
29
34
Utah
Dan Jones & Assoc. 9/6-9 3%
65
25
5
Virginia
SurveyUSA 8/20-22 3.7%
49
45
13
W. Virginia
Zogby/WSJ 8/30-9/3 4.3%
49
40
5
Wisconsin
Strategic Vision 9/11-13 3%
49
43
10
Kerry Leads
STATE
POLLSTER, DATE, & MOE (+/-)
BUSH
KERRY
ELECT-ORAL VOTES
California
Strategic Vision 8/9-11 3%
40
50
55
Connecticut
Quinnipiac 8/12-17 3%
40
48
7
Hawaii
SMS Research 7/29-8/3 3.7%
41
48
4
Illinois
Chicago Tribune 8/13-16 4%
38
52
21
Maryland
Gonzales Research 8/10-15 3.5%
40
53
10
Massa-chusetts
Bay State 7/18-28 4.1%
30
56
12
Michigan
CNN/Gallup/USA Today 9/10-13 4%
44
50
17
New Hampshire
Zogby/WSJ 8/30-9/3 4.2%
45
50
4
New Jersey
Strategic Vision 9/10-12 3%
43
47
15
New York
Marist 9/13-14 3.5%
40
48
31
Oregon
Zogby 9/2 4.8%
43
53
7
Rhode Island
Brown University 6/12-14 5%
25
49
4
Vermont
Research 2000 4/28-30 4%
36
51
3
Washington
CNN/Gallup/USA Today 9/3-6 4%
44
52
11
TIE
STATE
POLLSTER, DATE, & MOE (+/-)
BUSH
KERRY
ELECT-ORAL VOTES
Colorado
Rasmussen 8/19 4.5%
47
47
9
Maine
Zogby 9/9 5%
43
43
7


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