Two new polls of the Senate races in Kansas and North Carolina reveal that a Republican wave remains media wishful thinking, as Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan leads in North Carolina, and Independent Greg Orman is tied with Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas.
The PPP poll of North Carolina found Sen. Kay Hagan leading her Republican challenger Thom Tillis 46%-43%. The bad news for Republicans is that the North Carolina race features a voter breakdown that looks like the roadmap to a Democratic victory. Hagan lead with women (49%-37%), African-Americans (85%-4%), and young voters (61%-27%). Tillis leads with men (49%-42%), white voters (55%-34%), and seniors (54%-37%) Hagan has a better net approval rating (-9) than Tillis (-12), and has consistently maintained the same roughly three point lead for months.
The Kansas Senate race is turning into a nailbiter. A newMonmouth University poll shows Independent Greg Orman tied with Republican Sen. Pat Roberts 47%-47%. One of the main issues for Orman is that he has not been able to completely persuade Democrats. Orman got the support of 81% of Democratic. His support among Dems is ten points lower than the level of support for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Paul Davis. What is helping Orman is that only 76% of Republicans are supporting Sen. Roberts. Orman???s inability to woo more Democratic support is probably due to his refusal to say who he will caucus with if he wins.