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WashPo: Dems now slated to hold onto Senate

According to the Washington Post‘s latest election forecast, the Democrats now hold a slight edge over the Republicans to hold onto the Senate majority:

Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab, The Post’s statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections.

Election Lab puts Democrats’ chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent — a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control. (Worth noting: When the model showed Republicans as overwhelming favorites, our model builders — led by George Washington University’s John Sides — warned that the model could and would change as more actual polling — as opposed to historical projections — played a larger and larger role in the calculations. And, in Republicans’ defense, no one I talked to ever thought they had an 80 percent chance of winning the majority.)

Read more of the analysis here.

 

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archive

WashPo: Dems now slated to hold onto Senate

According to the Washington Post‘s latest election forecast, the Democrats now hold a slight edge over the Republicans to hold onto the Senate majority:

Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab, The Post’s statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections.

Election Lab puts Democrats’ chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent ?? a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control. (Worth noting: When the model showed Republicans as overwhelming favorites, our model builders ?? led by George Washington University’s John Sides ?? warned that the model could and would change as more actual polling ?? as opposed to historical projections ?? played a larger and larger role in the calculations. And, in Republicans’ defense, no one I talked to ever thought they had an 80 percent chance of winning the majority.)

Read more of the analysis here.

 

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