We are two-thirds through the current quarter, and while there are signs it is far stronger than the March quarter, we’re still looking in the rear-view mirror. By that, I mean we’ve gotten our second snapshot of how dismal the level of growth was in the first quarter of the year. Remember, economists originally forecasted it would come in near +1.3%, and the initial reading at 0.1% was just above no growth.
On May 29, we received our “second look,” which supposedly gives us a clearer picture of the quarter’s economic activity. It came as no surprise the revision painted an ever-darker picture of the economy during the March quarter with its -1% reading.
Now we can get all down and dour looking at that figure, but as I just mentioned, it’s now behind us.
Stock prices have moved up, down or not at all in the first quarter. Companies have reported their revenue and earnings per share (EPS) results for that time period and the stock market has moved on. In other words, the stock market is a forward-looking animal with a view of three to nine months ahead.