On Wednesday, it finally happened ‚?? the pivot to Asia. No, not the United States. It was Russia that turned East.
In Shanghai, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping¬†signed a spectacular energy deal¬†‚?? $400 billion of Siberian natural gas to be exported to China over 30 years.
This is huge. By indelibly linking producer and consumer ‚?? the pipeline alone is a¬†$70‚??billion infrastructure project¬†‚?? it deflates the post-Ukraine Western threat (mostly empty, but still very loud) to cut European imports of Russian gas. Putin has just defiantly demonstrated that he has other places to go.
The Russia-China deal also makes a mockery of¬†U.S. boasts¬†to have isolated Russia because of Ukraine.¬†Not even Germany wants¬†to risk a serious rupture with Russia (hence the absence of significant sanctions). And now Putin has just ostentatiously unveiled a signal 30-year energy partnership with the world‚??s second-largest economy. Some isolation.
The contrast with President Obama‚??s own vaunted pivot to Asia is embarrassing (to say nothing of the Keystone pipeline with Canada).¬†He went to Japan last month¬†also seeking a major trade agreement that would symbolize and cement a pivotal strategic alliance.¬†He came home empty-handed.
Does the Obama foreign policy team even understand what is happening? For them, the Russia-China alliance is simply more retrograde, 19th-century, balance-of-power maneuvering by men of the past oblivious to the reality of a 21st century governed by law and norms. A place where, for example,¬†one simply doesn‚??t annex¬†a neighbor‚??s territory. Indeed, Obama scolds Russia and China for not living up to their obligations as major stakeholders in this new interdependent world.
The Chinese and Russians can only roll their eyes. These norms and rules mean nothing to them. Sure, they‚??ll join the World Trade Organization for the commercial advantages ‚?? then cheat like hell with cyberespionage and intellectual piracy. They see these alleged norms as forms of velvet-glove imperialism, clever extensions of a Western hegemony meant to keep Russia in its reduced post-Soviet condition and China contained by a dominant U.S. military.
Obama cites modern rules; Russia and China, animated by resurgent nationalism, are governed by ancient maps. Putin refers to eastern and southern Ukraine by¬†the old czarist term of ‚??New Russia.‚?Ě¬†And China‚??s foreign minister justifies vast territorial claims that violate maritime law by citing traditional (‚??nine-dash‚?Ě)¬†maps that grant China dominion¬†over the East and South China seas.
Which makes this alignment of the world‚??s two leading anti-Western powers all the more significant. It marks a major alteration in the global balance of power.
Putin to Shanghai reprises Nixon to China. To be sure, it‚??s not the surprise that Henry Kissinger pulled off in secret. But it is the capstone of a gradual ‚?? now accelerated ‚?? Russia-China rapprochement that essentially undoes the Kissinger-Nixon achievement.
Their 1972 strategic coup fundamentally turned the geopolitical tables on Moscow. Putin has now turned the same tables on us. China and Russia together represent the core of a new coalition of anti-democratic autocracies challenging the Western-imposed, post-Cold War status quo. Their enhanced partnership marks the first emergence of a global coalition against American hegemony since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Indeed, at this week‚??s Asian cooperation conference,¬†Xi proposed¬†a brand-new continental security system to include Russia and Iran (lest anyone mistake its anti-imperialist essence) and exclude America. This is an open challenge to the post-Cold War, U.S.-dominated world that Obama inherited and then weakened beyond imagining.
If carried through, it would mark the end of a quarter-century of unipolarity. And herald a return to a form of bipolarity ‚?? two global coalitions: one free, one not ‚?? though, with communism dead, not as structurally rigid or ideologically dangerous as Cold War bipolarity. Not a fight to the finish, but a struggle nonetheless ‚?? for dominion and domination.
To which Obama, who once proclaimed that ‚??no one nation can or should try to dominate another nation,‚?Ě is passive, perhaps even oblivious. His pivot to Asia remains a dead letter. Yet his withdrawal from the Middle East ‚?? where from Egypt to Saudi Arabia, from Libya to Syria, U.S. influence is at its lowest ebb in 40 years ‚?? is a¬†fait accompli¬†.
The retreat is compounded by Obama‚??s proposed massive cuts in defense spending (down to below 3 percent of GDP by 2017) even as Russia is rearming and¬†China is creating¬†a sophisticated military soon capable of denying America access to the waters of the Pacific Rim.
Decline is not a condition. Decline is a choice. In this case, Obama‚??s choice. And it‚??s the one area where he can be said to be succeeding splendidly.