The Weekly Standard reports that the bipartisan Battleground Poll is projecting a solid Romney victory on Election Day, a 5-point win big enough to “increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate” as Romney’s coattails sweep through Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
Obama’s turnout efforts and push for early voting are factored into this analysis, but the Battleground analysts don’t think they’ll be enough to overcome Romney’s lead, especially since the GOP ground game is nothing to sneeze at, either. The internals of the poll are highly favorable to Romney: the “right track” number for the direction of the country is only 37 percent, where a minimum of 40 percent is normally required for an incumbent to secure re-election. And Romney’s favorable rating is now higher than Obama’s, both overall and among key demographic groups, robbing Obama of a long-cherished advantage in the soft but significant “likability” metric. (A great number of people either vote for the candidate they like, or find ways to like the candidate they plan to vote for.)
Battleground therefore sees Mitt Romney winning on Election Day with 52 percent of the vote, while they project Barack Obama chugging in with… wait for it… 47 percent.