Deciphering Palin's Words and Actions: She's Running!

Sarah Palin’s political action committee, Sarah PAC, announced today that it raised over $1.6 million dollars, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Committee (FEC) and has over $1.4 million on hand, which cannot be used in a presidential primary. Palin’s PAC spent money on things such as travel expenses and a $5,000 donation to Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.).

The FEC filing again spurred discussion about whether Palin will run for president.

Last night, on Fox News’ “Hannity,” Palin said, “I’m not wholly confident that we have that field set yet, that that one individual is in the field” and that she is “still thinking about being one who would offer myself up in the name of service, knowing confidently that I have those common-sense, fiscally conservative, pro- private sector policy experience and ideas that can be put to good work for this country.”

When asked if she had a timeframe, Palin replied, “Well, legally, of course, there are timeframes … it’s coming rapidly in front of all of us. You know, August and September, you do have to start laying out a plan if you are to be one to throw your hat in the ring. So that — that’s basically the timeframe.”

For the first time, Palin gave a window in which she would make an announcement.

If her words, action, and non-actions are examined, there is beyond a preponderance of evidence that Palin will run for president and not seek to become an endorser.

This week, Greta Van Susteren of Fox News surmised in a blog post that she thought Palin was running. The first and last reasons Van Susteren gave were the most compelling.

According to Van Susteren, Palin “has never said no.” Van Susteren also asked, “are there any signs she is not running other than that she is not physically in Iowa and has not declared a candidacy?”

Last weekend, Palin wrote a note on Facebook titled “The Sugar Daddy Has Run Out of Sugar; Now We Need New Leaders.” 

Here were the relevant excerpts from the note:

The same “experts” who got us into this mess are now telling us that the only way out of our debt crisis is to “increase revenue,” but not by creating more jobs and therefore a larger tax base; no, they want to “increase revenue” by raising taxes on job creators who are taxed enough already! … Hard working taxpayers have been big government’s Sugar Daddy for far too long, and now we’re out of sugar. We don’t want big government, we can’t afford it, and we are unwilling to pay for it.

The office of the presidency … requires a strong chief executive who has been entrusted with real authority in the past and has achieved a proven track record of positive measurable accomplishments. Leaders are expected to give good speeches, but leadership is so much more than oratory.

But first and foremost we must tackle our debt. We don’t have the luxury of playing politics as usual. We need real leaders who will put aside their own political self-interest to do what is right for the nation. And if they don’t emerge… well, America has a do-over in November 2012.

First, Palin lit into Obama, which she does with glee.

Next, as Ian Lazaran, one of the most astute Palin observers who writes for the influential site Conservatives4palin, observed in this post, “only two people can plausibly use the term “do-over” as it relates to the 2012 election: John McCain and Sarah Palin

As Lazaran notes, “since McCain has unequiovcably ruled out running again and since it’s unlikely that Governor Palin will endorse someone who has unequivocably ruled out running again, the most reasonable conclusion to draw from her use of the “do-over” term is that she plans on running for the presidency.”

Further, Lazaran noted, in reference to Palin’s “strong executive” formulation, that “everyone knows that the Texas Governor holds very little authority …  By contrast … the Alaska Governor holds more authority than nearly every other Governor in the country.”

From these words, Palin’s search for the perfect presidential contender seems to be similar to how Dick Cheney searched for the perfect Vice President for George W. Bush and picked himself.

Having established the high unlikeliness that she will endorse anyone in the current field or anyone who may be thinking about entereing the field, Palin told Newsweek, in a cover story that came out this week, that “I believe that I can win a national election” but her family has to want her to run.

In the Newsweek story, Palin said that that “if it came down to the family just saying ‘please, Mom, don’t do this,’ then that would be the deal-killer for me, because your family’s gotta be in it with you.”

In the same article, though, Palin says, “I think Bristol has made up her mind, and Bristol wants me to run for president.” Palin also implies her daughter Willow and her son Track are fine with her running.

When the reporter asked Todd Palin his thoughts, Todd said, “Do I want her to run? … It’s up to her. I mean, we’ll discuss it. But she’s definitely qualified to run this country. And she’s got a fire in the belly to serve.”

To review, Palin doesn’t think the candidate that can beat Obama has emerged. She does not think any of the current or potential candidates are the strongest to beat Obama. Her family seems to be on board. And she told Hannity that her timetable for an announcement was August or September.

Based on this evidence, Palin will announce for the presidency in August or September. The only thing left to guess is the date on which she is going to announce.