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Summer of Recovery: The Sequel

Barack Obama has been President for over 28 months now and seemingly at the end of every month we get abysmal economic reports that we’re told were unexpected by the so-called experts. This type of wish-casting on the part of economists continues to ignore the dire reality that our economy is in deep, deep trouble. The news today is no exception, and represents some alarmingly bad news.

Companies in the U.S. added 38,000 workers to payrolls in May, according to figures from ADP Employer Services. The median estimate in the Bloomberg News survey called for a 175,000 advance. Estimates for the ADP data ranged from increases of 125,000 to 200,000, according to the Bloomberg survey of 37 economists.

So some folks actually expected as many as 200,000 private sector jobs to be added and it was an anemic 38,000. Consider how many new bodies were available for employment with colleges emptying out for the summer and the statistics are nothing less than bleak. Naturally, the media churns out the comical template:

Companies created far fewer jobs than expected in May, as the economic recovery showed signs of losing momentum.

How is it these folks are consistently wrong, month after month, year after year, yet every month we’re told the news was unexpected? It’s laughable and, sadly, quite likely to worsen.

While the ADP is not always an accurate predictor of nonfarm payrolls additions, economists are likely to lower their estimates for jobs in May based on this starkly weaker report.

Maybe they should just predict zero growth and zero jobs will be added; then when meager numbers like 38,000 come in they can can celebrate and point toward the sheer awesomeness of the Obama economy.

Meanwhile, in other news, consumer confidence fell — wait for it — unexpectedly in May.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 60.8 from a revised 66 in April, a sign of the toll that high gas prices, a choppy job outlook and a moribund housing market are taking on people’s psyches. Economists had expected an increase to 67. It was the lowest reading since November.

Let see: Few jobs, skyrocketing gas and energy costs and a horrific housing market leads to a low consumer confidence and that’s unexpected? Could you imagine the merciless hammering a Republican administration would be getting from this mess? In the end most of the spin will simply give Obama the benefit of the doubt, but will the American public be so forgiving in November 2012? Probably not, which is why the media is so desperate to knock down any potential GOP challenger. They realize the peril facing the guy they put in office.

 

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JWF is a guest blogger for Human Events and the proprietor of Jammie Wearing Fools.

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