Political and Security Challenges in the Middle East Area

The current political events around the world show us that the world we have known is changing. It is not only about the global movements for democracy and freedom; it is about the whole world which has transformed itself.

In the last 20 years, were so many political and economical outbreaks worldwide but most of them worked separately, not so associated and with the same goal: fight for some kind of freedom. It is not important if people are fighting for freedom to or freedom from, they wake up and they want changes.

The political fever in Tunisia has occurred so suddenly, no one predicted that so many citizens will be united in action for their better future. They were suffering for years and whole West did not see that suffer till the last moment and social explosion over there. Who would say that poor and non-educated Tunisia will lead the great wave of global actions for political and social changes? Most people think about Tunisia like about exotic place but this time, Tunisian youth and poor people has shown to the whole world that it is the end of Ben Ali‘s era of corruption. The main root of this Collective discontent of Tunisian people is located in the growing level of unemployment and underemployment. That economic aspect hit the nation very strong and made it mobile and ready for rebellion. Now, in the process of new government rebuilding in Tunisia, America and EU should help, first of all, that democratic development and to empower that weak civil body of Tunisia to become more influential in some future policy-making.

After Tunisia, comes Egypt. The Arab Republic of Egypt with one man who has dominated this country for nearly 30 years. Hosni Mubarak. The last one. Many generations of Egyptian are fed up with this regime, with strict system without any progress and democratic outcome. Many of them are ready to die in the freedom fight and street’s battle for better tomorrow, if it ever comes. Egyptians are frustrated by very bad economy, failed governance, and corrupt government. State life without any perspective. Also, the question is: what Egypt will choose? Islamist oriented government or democratic based regime? Islamist radicals are located in Egypt and some of them are involved in rebellion. Those who are connected with Al Qaeda would be more than pleased to put Egypt in islamic state like Iran is and to make some kind of paravane and terrorism-sponsorship state. Therefore, it is more than seriously for the USA to choose its side in this clash. To support democratic efforts of the Egyptian people and also to help the forming of new political authority, this could enable establishment of electoral process. The worst outcome of this drama could be transformation of The Arab Republic of Egypt into Islamic Republic of Egypt, which should be considered as North African Iran. The potential Islamic regime would be also the sign of failed U.S.-EU diplomacy and debacle of whole western democracy.

These mentioned repercussions could hit the Algeria too. Some scholars argue that it is the matter of time when Algeria will establish sharia- based Islamic regime. This country is also so poor and endangered with the ruined society and wounded political system and could be use misused for Islamist takeover. In that case, it would affect whole North Africa, Middle East, Europe and America, more or less.

What about Libya? So many years after “Lockerbie attack”, U.S. – Libyan Relations are still in spiny rebuilding. Libyan government does not share the same diplomatic values with the U.S. but since 2001, it has been more than keen to cooperate in counter terrorism field. Beside that, Libya has an obvious lack of democracy and that is the main obstacle. Maybe there could be the “Revolution for Democracy” and maybe not but someone who has been seen as a potential successor of Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi, is one of his sons: Saif al-Islam Qadhafi, who be acceptable for the Western World because of the democratic values he shares with the U.S. and EU. The fact is that Libya still resistant to internal and external pressure.
The events in the North Africa also affect the already unstable Middle East. First of all, as a main object of concern is the Islamic Republic of Iran and double standards for this country which direct come from the EU and U.S. Both of them are not sure which approach to choose regarding to Iran. If they support opposition, they will have problems with current clerical Iranian regime which is going to build its nuclear program. On the other side, they try to negotiate with mula’s government and to convince them to give up from nuclear weapons. Maybe Iranians authority will think to postpone its nuclear weapons program if the Americans and Europeans put Iranian oppositions on the black terrorist’s list. It is some kind of diplomatic game without end. I.R.I. is waiting   the completion of Egypt’s drama but not without interests for spreading political Islam.  Israel is also very interested in the current political events in Egypt. There are direct political and security implications of this revolution on The Mideast Peace Process. The worst case would be Islamist takeover of Egypt and ruling of Muslim Brotherhood, which indirect would empower radicalization of other Islamic segments around Israel and inner: Hammas in Gaza (west), Hezbollah from Lebanon (north) and Muslim Brotherhood from Sinai (south). Also, Iran with the current government is still a potential threat to Israeli Security. The best solution for Israel would be democratic outcome of Egypt’s crisis and reduction of Islamic influence in the Middle East area.

The political scene of the Middle East shouldn’t be considered without analysis of the role of the U.S., as main external actor.
The aggravating factor is that America is not as strong as it used to be before Barack Obama. It looks like it becomes more and more weak and internal and external enemies could misuse it for their purposes. America’s voice with Obama is so silent and so shy. World knows America as a strong country with its own values, criteria and political standards. That America should not be weak and silent, that America must be waked up as soon as possible and start participating in Global Affairs.

Possible increasing of the Islamic impact in the mentioned region would be unpleasant for democratic-oriented states and could produce the appearance of new terrorism activities worldwide.

Therefore, U.S. should work together with the Mideast leaders on diplomatic efforts to bring the Peace in the Middle East. Although, the most powerful states of the world should be united in Counter terrorism project, without any latent interests.

Editor’s Note: Ms. Maksimovic is a citizen of Serbia and I want to thank her for writing this article. It is the goal of Guns & Patriots to hear from people around the world that stand for freedom and liberty and print their words unedited or unfiltered – we are seeking the truth. Sandra hopes to visit the United States this year. Please welcome her to the G & P family. Thanks ~ Mike Piccione, Editor G & P