The latest surveys from Democrat-affiliated Public Policy Polling in the Illinois, Washington State, Colorado and Alaska U.S. Senate contests show Republican candidates maintaining leads over their opponents on the eve of the election. Below you’ll find key excerpts on each race.
Republicans continue to lead the races for both Governor and Senator in Illinois, albeit by close margins. Mark Kirk is ahead of Alexi Giannoulias 46-42 for the state’s open Senate seat and Bill Brady is ahead of Pat Quinn 45-40 for Governor.
Independents are leaning strongly toward the GOP. Kirk leads Giannoulias 46-31 with them and Brady has a 45-27 advantage over Quinn with them. Republican voters are much more unified around their candidates this year than Democrats are. 87% of GOP identifiers are planning to vote for Kirk while only 78% of Democrats are planning to vote for Giannoulias.
Every time PPP has polled the Washington Senate race this year it’s found the race to be within 2 or 3 points and our final poll there is no exception. But there is one twist- for the first time we find Dino Rossi leading Patty Murray, by a 50-48 margin.
The most worrisome number for Murray within the poll, beyond her small overall disadvantage, is that among voters who say they’ve already returned their ballots Rossi’s advantage is wider at 52-47.
The Senate race in Colorado continues to look like it will be one of the closest in the country on Tuesday night. PPP’s final poll there finds Ken Buck ahead of Michael Bennet by the slimmest of margins, 49-48.
Each candidate has his party base pretty much sewn up. Bennet is winning 87% of Democrats and Buck is winning 86% of Republicans. Giving Buck his slim lead is a 50-46 advantage among independents.
Joe Miller is favored heading into the final two days of the US Senate campaign in Alaska. 37% of voters say they’ll pick him while 30% plan to vote for Scott McAdams and another 30% plan to write in Lisa Murkowski.
In a cycle that has seen a lot of strange races, this one may well be the strangest. It would be premature to write off anyone at this point but Miller does look to be the favorite headed into the final stretch.