With just over two weeks to go, Republicans seem more nervous each day about John McCain’s increasingly bad poll numbers. But a look at all the major polling in ten states with contested Senate races reveals potentially worse news for the GOP: that the present 51-to-49 Democratic majority could come perilously close to a “filibuster-proof” Senate with 61 Democrat seats.
Such a scenario would result — if Barack Obama is elected — in a Senate in which liberal nominees to the Supreme Court or lower courts would be all but guaranteed confirmation. In addition, an Obama budget or costly “stimulus package” would have smooth sailing through Senate committees and the full chamber.
The math itself is alarming to Republicans. Nine of the ten Senate races considered horseraces are in Republican hands — eight by incumbents fighting for their political lives, one an open seat (the Colorado seat vacated by Republican Sen. Wayne Allard, where polls show Democrat Mark Udall opening up a lead in what was until recently a horserace with Republican Bob Schaffer). In the one race in which a Republican was thought to have a chance at defeating a Democratic senator, a Rasmussen poll shows Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu with a comfortable 54 to 41 percent lead over GOP challenger John Kennedy.
Two Republican incumbents once thought to be invincible — North Carolina’s Liddy Dole and Gordon Smith of Oregon — are now running behind Democratic state legislators in the latest surveys. Even Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell is in a battle royal for his fifth term.
If you haven’t seen results from Virginia and New Mexico, don’t keep looking if you’re a Republican. The Democratic candidates for the seats of retiring GOP Sens. John Warner and Pete Domenici have greater leads over their Republican opponents than any of those in contests listed below.
A personal note: when I heard Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean predict a net gain of seven seats for his party in Senate races, I thought he was telling “Pollyana stories” at the Christian Science Monitor breakfast.
Now I’m not so sure.
A breakdown by key state ….
|
Alaska
| Pollster |
Dates
|
N/Pop
|
Schaffer
|
Udall
|
Kinsey
|
Moore Campbell
|
Other
|
Undecided
|
|
| Suffolk |
10/10-13/08
|
450 LV
|
34
|
45
|
1
|
–
|
3
|
–
|
17
|
| Quinnipiac/WSJ/Post |
10/8-12/08 |
1088 LV
|
40 |
54
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
1 |
6 |
PPP (D)
|
10/8-10/08 |
1331 LV |
39
|
49
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
12 |
| Quinnipiac/WSJ/Post |
10/3-7/08
|
997 LV
|
43
|
48
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
9 |
| Mason-Dixon |
9/29-10/1/08
|
625 LV
|
38
|
43
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
19
|
| Rasmussen |
9/23/08
|
700 LV
|
44
|
46
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
4
|
6 |
Ciruli Associates
|
9/19-23/08
|
501 LV
|
38
|
45
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
17 |
PPP (D)
|
9/20-21/08
|
1084 LV
|
40
|
48
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
12 |
|
|
Georgia
| Pollster |
Dates
|
N/Pop
|
Chambliss |
Martin
|
Buckley
|
Other
|
Undecided |
| SurveyUSA |
10/11-12/08
|
547 LIV
|
46
|
43
|
6
|
–
|
5
|
| InsiderAdvantage |
10/9/08
|
531 LV
|
45
|
45
|
–
|
2
|
8
|
| Rasmussen |
10/7/08
|
500 LV
|
50
|
44
|
2
|
–
|
4
|
Strategic Vision (R)
|
10/5-7/08
|
800 LV
|
47
|
44
|
4
|
–
|
5
|
DailyKos.Com (D)/Research 2000
|
9/29-10/1/08
|
600 LV
|
45
|
44
|
–
|
4
|
7
|
SurveyUSA
|
9/28-29/08
|
677 LV
|
46
|
44
|
5
|
–
|
5
|
Mellman (D-Martin)
|
9/24-28/08
|
600 LV
|
37
|
34
|
3
|
–
|
–
|
| Rasmussen |
9/16/08
|
500 LV
|
50
|
43
|
2
|
–
|
4
|
|
|
Kentucky
| Pollster |
Dates
|
N/Pop |
McConnell
|
Lunsford
|
Other
|
Undecided |
Voter/Consumer (R-McConnell)
|
10/5-8/08
|
800 LV
|
47
|
38
|
–
|
– |
Garin Hart Yang (D)
|
10/6-7/08
|
501 LV
|
48
|
48
|
–
|
7
|
| Rasmussen |
9/30/08
|
500 LV
|
51
|
42
|
2
|
5
|
| Mason-Dixon |
9/22-25/08
|
717 LV
|
45
|
44
|
–
|
–
|
| SurveyUSA |
9/21-22/08
|
672 LV
|
49
|
46
|
–
|
5
|
| Research 2000/Daily Kos.com (D) |
9/15-17/08
|
600 LV
|
50 |
37
|
–
|
13
|
|
|
Louisiana
| Pollster |
Dates |
N/Pop |
Kennedy |
Landrie |
Undecided |
Other |
| Rasmussen |
9/25/08 |
500 LV
|
41 |
54 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
Minnesota
| Pollster |
Dates
|
Non/Pop
|
Coleman
|
Franken
|
Barkley
|
Other
|
Undecided
|
Not voting |
| Quinnipiac/WSJ/Post |
10/8-12/08
|
1019 LV
|
36
|
38
|
–
|
–
|
8
|
–
|
Rasmussen
|
10/7/08
|
500 LV
|
37
|
43
|
17
|
–
|
3
|
–
|
| Quinnipiac/WSJ/Post |
10/3-7/08
|
1076 LV
|
37
|
39
|
–
|
–
|
7
|
–
|
MPR/Humphrey Institute
|
10/3-5/08
|
418 LV
|
37
|
41
|
14
|
–
|
8
|
–
|
Star Tribune
|
9/30-10/2/08
|
1084 LV
|
34
|
43
|
18
|
–
|
5
|
–
|
SurveyUSA
|
9/30-10/1/08
|
725 LV
|
43
|
33
|
19
|
–
|
5
|
–
|
Mellman (D-DSCC)
|
9/29-10/1/08
|
600 LV
|
36
|
38
|
14
|
–
|
14
|
–
|
MPR/Humphrey Institute
|
9/29-10/1/08
|
346 LV
|
40
|
31
|
14
|
–
|
15
|
–
|
Quinnipiac/WSJ/Post
|
9/14-21/08
|
1301 LV
|
49
|
42
|
–
|
3
|
6
|
–
|
Rasmussen
|
9/18/08
|
700 LV
|
48
|
47
|
3
|
–
|
3
|
–
|
|
|
Mississippi
| Pollster |
Dates
|
N/Pop
|
Wicker
|
Musgrove
|
Other
|
Undecided
|
Rasmussen
|
9/30/08
|
500 LV
|
49
|
47
|
2
|
3
|
InsiderAdvantage
|
9/24/08
|
500 LV
|
48
|
43
|
–
|
9
|
DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000
|
9/18-10/08
|
600 LV
|
48
|
43
|
–
|
9
|
|
|
New Hampshire
| Pollster |
Dates
|
N/Pop
|
Sununu
|
Shaheen
|
Blevens
|
Other
|
Undecided
|
ARG
|
10/6-8/08
|
600 LV
|
42
|
51
|
–
|
–
|
7
|
SurveyUSA
|
10/4-5/08
|
647 LV
|
40
|
48
|
7
|
–
|
4
|
Rasmussen
|
10/1/08
|
700 LV
|
45
|
50
|
–
|
1
|
3
|
Saint Anselm/SRBI
|
9/25-30/08
|
823 LV
|
35
|
49
|
1
|
–
|
15
|
Research 2000
|
9/22-24/08
|
600 LV
|
41
|
50
|
2
|
–
|
7
|
StrategicVision (R)
|
9/22-24/08
|
800 LV
|
45
|
47
|
–
|
–
|
8
|
Suffolk
|
9/20-24/08
|
600 LV
|
40
|
41
|
3
|
–
|
13
|
Rasmussen
|
9/23/08
|
700 LV
|
52
|
45
|
–
|
1
|
2
|
Allstate/National Journal
|
9/18-22/08
|
403 RV
|
39
|
48
|
–
|
–
|
11
|
|
|
North Carolina
| Pollster |
Dates
|
N/Pop
|
Dole
|
Hagan
|
Cole
|
Other
|
Undecided
|
PPP (D)
|
10/11-12/08
|
1196 LV
|
44
|
46
|
5
|
–
|
5
|
Anzalone-Liszt (D-Hagen)
|
10/5-9/08
|
750 LV
|
39
|
44
|
5
|
–
|
12
|
Rasmussen
|
10/8/08
|
700 LV
|
44
|
49
|
–
|
–
|
4
|
Civitas Institute/Tel Opinion Research
(R)
|
10/6-8/08
|
600 LV
|
42
|
45
|
3
|
–
|
10
|
WSOC-TV
|
10/6-7/08
|
500 LV
|
43
|
44
|
–
|
4
|
9
|
SurveyUSA
|
10/5-6/08
|
617 LV
|
44
|
43
|
7
|
–
|
6
|
PPP (D)
|
10/4-5/08
|
1202 LV
|
40
|
49
|
5
|
–
|
7
|
PPP (D)
|
9/28-29/08
|
1041 LV
|
38
|
46
|
6
|
–
|
10
|
Rasmussen
|
9/23/08
|
500 LV
|
45
|
48
|
–
|
–
|
5
|
Anzalone-Liszt (D-Hagen)
|
9/21/08
|
750 LV
|
38
|
43
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
Civitas Institute/Tel Opinion Research
(R)
|
9/17-20/08
|
600 RV
|
43
|
41
|
5
|
–
|
10
|
PPP (D)
|
9/17-19/08
|
1060 LV
|
41
|
46
|
6
|
–
|
7
|
Rasmussen
|
9/18/08
|
700 LV
|
45
|
51
|
–
|
2
|
3
|
Elon University
|
9/15-16/08
|
411 A
|
35
|
35
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
|
|
Oregon
| Pollster |
Dates
|
N/Pop
|
Smith
|
Merkley
|
Brownlow
|
Frohnmayer
|
Other
|
Undecided |
SurveyUSA
|
10/11-12/08
|
584 LV
|
41
|
46
|
7
|
–
|
–
|
6
|
DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000
|
9/22-24/08
|
600 LV
|
40
|
45
|
–
|
–
|
6
|
9 |
SurveyUSA
|
9/22-23/08
|
708 LV
|
42
|
44
|
8
|
–
|
–
|
6
|
Rasmussen
|
9/15/08
|
700 LV
|
46
|
45
|
–
|
–
|
2
|
7
|
|
