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Major polling in ten states with contested Senate races should keep the GOP on edge.

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Top Ten Senate Races Give GOP Jitters

Major polling in ten states with contested Senate races should keep the GOP on edge.

With just over two weeks to go, Republicans seem more nervous each day about John McCain’s increasingly bad poll numbers. But a look at all the major polling in ten states with contested Senate races reveals potentially worse news for the GOP: that the present 51-to-49 Democratic majority could come perilously close to a “filibuster-proof” Senate with 61 Democrat seats.

Such a scenario would result — if Barack Obama is elected — in a Senate in which liberal nominees to the Supreme Court or lower courts would be all but guaranteed confirmation. In addition, an Obama budget or costly “stimulus package” would have smooth sailing through Senate committees and the full chamber.

The math itself is alarming to Republicans. Nine of the ten Senate races considered horseraces are in Republican hands — eight by incumbents fighting for their political lives, one an open seat (the Colorado seat vacated by Republican Sen. Wayne Allard, where polls show Democrat Mark Udall opening up a lead in what was until recently a horserace with Republican Bob Schaffer). In the one race in which a Republican was thought to have a chance at defeating a Democratic senator, a Rasmussen poll shows Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu with a comfortable 54 to 41 percent lead over GOP challenger John Kennedy.

Two Republican incumbents once thought to be invincible — North Carolina’s Liddy Dole and Gordon Smith of Oregon — are now running behind Democratic state legislators in the latest surveys. Even Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell is in a battle royal for his fifth term.

If you haven’t seen results from Virginia and New Mexico, don’t keep looking if you’re a Republican. The Democratic candidates for the seats of retiring GOP Sens. John Warner and Pete Domenici have greater leads over their Republican opponents than any of those in contests listed below.

A personal note: when I heard Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean predict a net gain of seven seats for his party in Senate races, I thought he was telling “Pollyana stories” at the Christian Science Monitor breakfast.

Now I’m not so sure.

A breakdown by key state ….

Alaska

Pollster Dates
N/Pop
Schaffer
Udall
Kinsey
Moore Campbell
Other
Undecided
Suffolk 10/10-13/08
450 LV
34
45
1

3

17
Quinnipiac/WSJ/Post 10/8-12/08 1088 LV
40 54



1 6
PPP (D)
10/8-10/08 1331 LV 39
49




12
Quinnipiac/WSJ/Post 10/3-7/08
997 LV
43
48




9
Mason-Dixon 9/29-10/1/08
625 LV
38
43




19
Rasmussen 9/23/08
700 LV
44
46



4
6
Ciruli Associates
9/19-23/08
501 LV
38
45




17
PPP (D)
9/20-21/08
1084 LV
40
48




12

Georgia

Pollster Dates
N/Pop
Chambliss Martin
Buckley
Other
Undecided
SurveyUSA 10/11-12/08
547 LIV
46
43
6

5
InsiderAdvantage 10/9/08
531 LV
45
45

2
8
Rasmussen 10/7/08
500 LV
50
44
2

4
Strategic Vision (R)
10/5-7/08
800 LV
47
44
4

5
DailyKos.Com (D)/Research 2000
9/29-10/1/08
600 LV
45
44

4
7
SurveyUSA
9/28-29/08
677 LV
46
44
5

5
Mellman (D-Martin)
9/24-28/08
600 LV
37
34
3


Rasmussen 9/16/08
500 LV
50
43
2

4

Kentucky

Pollster Dates
N/Pop McConnell
Lunsford
Other
Undecided
Voter/Consumer (R-McConnell)
10/5-8/08
800 LV
47
38

Garin Hart Yang (D)
10/6-7/08
501 LV
48
48

7
Rasmussen 9/30/08
500 LV
51
42
2
5
Mason-Dixon 9/22-25/08
717 LV
45
44


SurveyUSA 9/21-22/08
672 LV
49
46

5
Research 2000/Daily Kos.com (D) 9/15-17/08
600 LV
50 37

13

Louisiana

Pollster Dates N/Pop Kennedy Landrie Undecided Other
Rasmussen 9/25/08 500 LV
41 54 3 2

Minnesota

Pollster Dates
Non/Pop
Coleman
Franken
Barkley
Other
Undecided
Not voting
Quinnipiac/WSJ/Post 10/8-12/08
1019 LV
36
38


8

Rasmussen
10/7/08
500 LV
37
43
17

3

Quinnipiac/WSJ/Post 10/3-7/08
1076 LV
37
39


7

MPR/Humphrey Institute
10/3-5/08
418 LV
37
41
14

8

Star Tribune
9/30-10/2/08
1084 LV
34
43
18

5

SurveyUSA
9/30-10/1/08
725 LV
43
33
19

5

Mellman (D-DSCC)
9/29-10/1/08
600 LV
36
38
14

14

MPR/Humphrey Institute
9/29-10/1/08
346 LV
40
31
14

15

Quinnipiac/WSJ/Post
9/14-21/08
1301 LV
49
42

3
6

Rasmussen
9/18/08
700 LV
48
47
3

3

Mississippi

Pollster Dates
N/Pop
Wicker
Musgrove
Other
Undecided
Rasmussen
9/30/08
500 LV
49
47
2
3
InsiderAdvantage
9/24/08
500 LV
48
43

9
DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000
9/18-10/08
600 LV
48
43

9

New Hampshire

Pollster Dates
N/Pop
Sununu
Shaheen
Blevens
Other
Undecided
ARG
10/6-8/08
600 LV
42
51


7
SurveyUSA
10/4-5/08
647 LV
40
48
7

4
Rasmussen
10/1/08
700 LV
45
50

1
3
Saint Anselm/SRBI
9/25-30/08
823 LV
35
49
1

15
Research 2000
9/22-24/08
600 LV
41
50
2

7
StrategicVision (R)
9/22-24/08
800 LV
45
47


8
Suffolk
9/20-24/08
600 LV
40
41
3

13
Rasmussen
9/23/08
700 LV
52
45

1
2
Allstate/National Journal
9/18-22/08
403 RV
39
48


11

North Carolina

Pollster Dates
N/Pop
Dole
Hagan
Cole
Other
Undecided
PPP (D)
10/11-12/08
1196 LV
44
46
5

5
Anzalone-Liszt (D-Hagen)
10/5-9/08
750 LV
39
44
5

12
Rasmussen
10/8/08
700 LV
44
49


4
Civitas Institute/Tel Opinion Research
(R)
10/6-8/08
600 LV
42
45
3

10
WSOC-TV
10/6-7/08
500 LV
43
44

4
9
SurveyUSA
10/5-6/08
617 LV
44
43
7

6
PPP (D)
10/4-5/08
1202 LV
40
49
5

7
PPP (D)
9/28-29/08
1041 LV
38
46
6

10
Rasmussen
9/23/08
500 LV
45
48


5
Anzalone-Liszt (D-Hagen)
9/21/08
750 LV
38
43



Civitas Institute/Tel Opinion Research
(R)
9/17-20/08
600 RV
43
41
5

10
PPP (D)
9/17-19/08
1060 LV
41
46
6

7
Rasmussen
9/18/08
700 LV
45
51

2
3
Elon University
9/15-16/08
411 A
35
35



Oregon

Pollster Dates
N/Pop
Smith
Merkley
Brownlow
Frohnmayer
Other
Undecided
SurveyUSA
10/11-12/08
584 LV
41
46
7


6
DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000
9/22-24/08
600 LV
40
45


6
9
SurveyUSA
9/22-23/08
708 LV
42
44
8


6
Rasmussen
9/15/08
700 LV
46
45


2
7
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Written By

John Gizzi has come to be known as â??the man who knows everyone in Washingtonâ? and, indeed, many of those who hold elected positions and in party leadership roles throughout the United States. With his daily access to the White House as a correspondent, Mr. Gizzi offers readers the inside scoop on whatâ??s going on in the nationâ??s capital. He is the author of a number of popular Human Events features, such as â??Gizzi on Politicsâ? and spotlights of key political races around the country. Gizzi also is the host of â??Gizziâ??s America,â? video interviews that appear on HumanEvents.com. Gizzi got his start at Human Events in 1979 after graduating from Fairfield University in Connecticut and then working for the Travis County (Tex.) Tax Assessor. He has appeared on hundreds of radio and TV shows, including Fox News Channel, C-SPAN, America's Voice,The Jim Bohannon Show, Fox 5, WUSA 9, America's Radio News Network and is also a frequent contributor to the BBC -- and has appeared on France24 TV and German Radio. He is a past president of the Georgetown Kiwanis Club, past member of the St. Matthew's Cathedral's Parish Council, and secretary of the West End Friends of the Library. He is a recipient of the William A. Rusher Award for Journalistic Excellence and was named Journalist of the Year by the Conservative Political Action Conference in 2002. John Gizzi is also a credentialed correspondent at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. He has questioned two IMF managing directors, Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Christine LaGarde, and has become friends with international correspondents worldwide. Johnâ??s email is JGizzi@EaglePub.Com

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