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Is the Tide Turning in the 2006 Campaign?

I am interrupting your week with this special edition of “Winning the Future” to deliver news about the 2006 elections — news that you may not have seen in the mainstream media. Despite the constant drumbeat of dire predictions by the New York and Washington-based elite press corps, the momentum of campaign 2006 has shifted — toward the GOP. But don’t expect to read about it in the newspaper. I will get to that in a moment.

But first I want to mention this:

Congratulations on a Victory for ‘Winning the Future’

Today is a day that members of the “Winning the Future” movement can congratulate themselves on a job well done.

Today, President Bush will sign the Border Security Bill into law, which creates 700 miles of secure fence along our Southwest border.

And when President Bush signs this important legislation, one group of people will be missing from the usual crowd that stands behind him: You. At critical moments as the bill moved through the House and the Senate, “Winning the Future” readers weighed in with their congressmen and senators. This is your victory. Congratulations on making a real difference for America.

Now for more good news.

As this Special Edition of “Winning the Future” goes online, my judgment is that Republicans will almost certainly retain their majority in the Senate and have an even chance to keep the House. In fact, if the current positive trend continues, Republicans could keep the House with a four- to eight-seat margin.

The signs of this momentum shift toward Republicans began to emerge this week.

‘The Republican Base Seems to be Coming Back Home’

Barron’s magazine did a race-by-race examination of each campaign’s cash on hand and predicts that Republicans will hold both houses of Congress. The same method, the Barron’s editors claim, proved accurate in 2002 and 2004, when they bucked the conventional wisdom and predicted GOP gains.

And this is how Dick Morris began his column this week:

“The latest polls show something very strange and quite encouraging is happening: The Republican base seems to be coming back home. This trend, only vaguely and dimly emerging from a variety of polls, suggests that a trend may be afoot that would deny the Democrats control of the House and the Senate.”

GOP Ahead in Democratic ‘Must Win’ States — TN, VA, NJ and MO

Polling this week has Republicans gaining or ahead in four key Senate races: Tennessee, Virginia, New Jersey and Missouri.

In Tennessee, both the Rasmussen and Zogby polls show Republican Bob Corker gaining momentum. Zogby has Corker up seven points over Democratic Rep. Harold Ford, Jr.

In Virginia, the McClatchy-MSNBC poll shows Republican Sen. George Allen fighting his way back to a four point lead over Democrat James Webb. Allen’s internal polling reportedly shows he has the support of more than 50 percent of Virginia voters.

In New Jersey, Zogby calls the Senate race a “turnaround”: Republican Tom Kean Jr. has taken the lead over Democrat Sen. Robert Menendez.

In Missouri, the Zogby poll puts Republican Senator Jim Talent up three points over his Democratic challenger, Claire McCaskill. Rasmussen has Talent up one point.

These races are all close, and 12 days is a long time in politics. But it sure looks like the electoral winds have shifted. When the Zogby poll asked which party voters prefer, the Democrats’ lead was cut by more than half, down to four points from nine points two weeks ago.

Mainstream Media Time vs. Blog Time

If you’re hearing about this shift in momentum for the first time, don’t worry. You’re not alone. New York Post columnist John Podhoretz thinks it may have something to do with the difference between that he calls “Mainstream Media Time” and “Blog Time.”

Mainstream Media Time is slow and still clings to the conventional wisdom (or is it a hope?) that the 2006 elections are a foregone conclusion of Republican defeat.

Blog Time is fast — it moves at the speed of the Internet. It started noticing the momentum shift to Republicans earlier this week.

Which will be proven right is anyone’s bet. But my money is on Blog Time.

Americans Have Seen the Democratic Future: It Doesn’t Work

One big reason for the new energy we’re seeing among Republicans is the realization of what the congressional leadership will look like if Democrats win back the House. It seems clear that Americans have glimpsed a future with the San Francisco values of Nancy Pelosi third in line for the presidency, and they don’t like what they see.

And who could blame them? The following is just a sampling of Nancy Pelosi’s voting record on issues that are critical to mainstream Americans. Pelosi voted:

  • NO on the Border Security Bill
  • NO on making the Republican tax cuts permanent
  • NO on eliminating the marriage penalty
  • NO on eliminating the death tax
  • NO on creating Health Savings Accounts
  • NO on the Defense of Marriage Act
  • NO on the 1996 Welfare Reform Law (and NO on its reauthorization)
  • NO on protecting the Pledge of Allegiance
  • NO on banning partial-birth abortion
  • NO on requiring a photo I.D. to ensure only legal voters vote
  • NO on the Patriot Act
  • NO on authorizing domestic tracking of terrorists
  • NO on military tribunals and new interrogation rules for terrorist detainees

Your friend,

Newt Gingrich

P.S. — Thanks to all those who have made my new book, Rediscovering God in America, such a huge success. Since the day it was released last week, Rediscovering God in America shot up to the top of the sales charts on Amazon.com. (You can hear my interview with Sean Hannity about Rediscovering God in America here.) I’m proud and gratified at the welcome it has received. It’s proof that Americans are hungry for the message that our history and heritage of faith has made America the most exceptional nation in history.

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Written By

Mr. Gingrich is the former speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives and author of To Save America: Stopping Obama's Secular-Socialist Machine, Real Change: From the World That Fails to the World That Works and Winning the Future (published by Regnery, a HUMAN EVENTS sister company).

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