Pre-election prediction: 53-47 Republican Senate<li><a href="http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=17648">MD-Sen: Michael Steele vs. Ben Cardin</a><li><a href="http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=17647">FL-13: Vern Buchanan vs. Christine Jennings</a><li><a href="http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=17649">VA-02: Thelma Drake vs. Phil Kellam</a>

Senate GOP Will Have a Smaller Majority

Pre-election prediction: 53-47 Republican Senate

MD-Sen: Michael Steele vs. Ben Cardin

FL-13: Vern Buchanan vs. Christine Jennings

VA-02: Thelma Drake vs. Phil Kellam

John Gizzi

October 23, 2006

With two weeks to go before voters in 33 states go to the polls to choose U.S. senators, it appears that Republicans are likely to retain their majority in the Senate—albeit with diminished ranks.

The Senate currently has 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and one independent (Vermont’s James Jeffords, the former Republican who caucuses with the Democrats).

I predict the Republicans will hang on in three states where incumbent senators are hard-pressed—Missouri, Ohio and Virginia—and in Tennessee, where Senate GOP Leader Bill Frist is retiring. In addition, the GOP is likely to pick up the Senate seat in New Jersey currently held by Democrat Bob Menendez.

Democrats, however, are likely to unseat Republican senators in Montana (Conrad Burns), Pennsylvania (Rick Santorum) and Rhode Island (Lincoln Chafee) and hold seats in Maryland and Minnesota, where incumbent Senators Paul Sarbanes and Mark Dayton are retiring.

In Vermont, where Jeffords is retiring, leftist Rep. Bernie Sanders, running as an independent, will win his seat In Connecticut, Democratic Sen. Joe Lieberman should win his fourth term, this time as an independent. Both Sanders and Lieberman will caucus with the Democrats.

In sum, I predict the new line-up will be 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who vote with Democrats.

STATE	REPUBLICAN	DEMOCRAT	ANALYSIS
*Likely Republican Pickups*
New Jersey	Tom Kean, Jr.	Bob Menendez	Son of former governor has edge on appointed senator.
Leaning Republican Holds
Missouri	Jim Talent	Claire McCaskill	Missouri has gone GOP five elections in row.
Ohio	Mike DeWine	Sherrod Brown	Beleaguered DeWine has momentum in final weeks.
Tennessee	Bob Corker	Harold Ford, Jr.	State’s GOP leanings should put Corker over.
Virginia	George Allen	Jim Webb	Allen now pulling ahead of Webb.
Certain Republican Holds
Arizona	Jon Kyl	Jim Pedersen	Pedersen’s big-spending race now wearing thin.
Indiana	Dick Lugar	(no candidate)	Lugar is an Indiana institution.
Maine	Olympia Snowe	Jean Hay Bright	Snowe will coast to third term.
Mississippi	Trent Lott	Erik Fleming	Fleming is a little-known state legislator.
Nevada	John Ensign	Jack Carter	Ensign has big lead over Jimmy’s son.
Texas	Kay Bailey Hutchison	Barbara Ann Radnofsky	Hutchison will win in record landslide.
Utah	Orrin Hatch	Pete Ashton	Hatch is easy sixth term winner.
Wyoming	Craig Thomas	Dale Groutage	This is Cheney country.
Likely Democratic Pickups
Montana	Conrad Burns	– Jon Tester	Abramoff money hurting Burns.
Pennsylvania	Rick Santorum	Bob Casey, Jr.	Santorum can’t catch up with son of former governor.
Rhode Island	Lincoln Chafee	Sheldon Whitehouse	Rough primary wounded Chafee.
Leaning Democratic Holds
Maryland	Michael Steele	Ben Cardin	Democrat registration edge too much for Steele.
Michigan	Mike Bouchard	Debbie Stabenow	Bouchard a strong sheriff, but Stabenow a stronger senator.
Minnesota	Mark Kennedy	Amy Klobacher	Democrats united behind Klobacher.
Certain Democratic Holds
California	Dick Mountjoy	Dianne Feinstein	Mountjoy could not raise real money for race.
Delaware	Jan Teng	Tom Carper	Carper a longtime fixture in state politics.
Florida	Katherine Harris	Bill Nelson	Harris campaign crash-landed.
Hawaii	Jerry Coffee	Daniel Akaka	GOP’s Coffee withdrew for health reasons.
Massachusetts	Ken Chase	Ted Kennedy	Kennedy conceded seat by GOP.
Nebraska	Pete Ricketts	Ben Nelson	Nelson casts just enough GOP votes in Senate.
New Mexico	Allen McCulloch	Jeff Bingaman	McCulloch is unknown.
New York	John Spencer	Hillary Clinton	Hillary will get boost for ’08 presidential race.
North Dakota	Dwight Grotberg	Kent Conrad	State hasn’t elected GOP senator since ’80.
Washington	Mike McGavick	Maria Cantwell	McGavick’s campaign never caught fire.
West Virginia	John Raese	Robert Byrd	Byrd is his state’s Strom Thurmond.
Wisconsin	R. Gerald Lorge	Herb Kohl	Lorge is unknown and underfinanced.
Certain Independent Wins
Connecticut	Alan Schlesinger	Ned Lamont	Joe Lieberman, running as an independent, has much GOP support.
Vermont	Richard Tarrant	Bernie Sanders (I)	Sanders has Democrat backing, big lead in polls.

(Incumbents in the chart are listed in bold.)

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Written By John Gizzi

John Gizzi has come to be known as �??the man who knows everyone in Washington�?� and, indeed, many of those who hold elected positions and in party leadership roles throughout the United States. With his daily access to the White House as a correspondent, Mr. Gizzi offers readers the inside scoop on what�??s going on in the nation�??s capital. He is the author of a number of popular Human Events features, such as �??Gizzi on Politics�?� and spotlights of key political races around the country. Gizzi also is the host of �??Gizzi�??s America,�?� video interviews that appear on HumanEvents.com. Gizzi got his start at Human Events in 1979 after graduating from Fairfield University in Connecticut and then working for the Travis County (Tex.) Tax Assessor. He has appeared on hundreds of radio and TV shows, including Fox News Channel, C-SPAN, America's Voice,The Jim Bohannon Show, Fox 5, WUSA 9, America's Radio News Network and is also a frequent contributor to the BBC -- and has appeared on France24 TV and German Radio. He is a past president of the Georgetown Kiwanis Club, past member of the St. Matthew's Cathedral's Parish Council, and secretary of the West End Friends of the Library. He is a recipient of the William A. Rusher Award for Journalistic Excellence and was named Journalist of the Year by the Conservative Political Action Conference in 2002. John Gizzi is also a credentialed correspondent at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. He has questioned two IMF managing directors, Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Christine LaGarde, and has become friends with international correspondents worldwide. John�??s email is JGizzi@EaglePub.Com

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