Washington, DC
Vol. 41, No. 21b
To: Our Readers
- Democrats on track to pick up 20 House seats
- Republicans now trying only to plug holes, minimize losses
- GOP using money and personnel to fight for the Foley seat
- Republican strategists don't believe they can save Santorum and Burns
- Missouri Senate race could come down to Talent's cash
Outlook
- The fear of Republicans and desire of Democrats is that what now shapes up as a close contest for both the House and Senate will turn into a Democratic runaway. In the 38 years that this publication has been analyzing political contests, we have seen that phenomenon in presidential contests but not in congressional races. It could happen here, however, if disgruntled conservatives stay home.
- The biggest impact of the Foley scandal appears to have passed without creating a Democratic tidal wave. The biggest victim is Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). The party has put in a major new TV buy for Reynolds in both Buffalo and Rochester. Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) has suffered a little as a result of the scandal but does not appear to be in trouble in his safe district.
- Dirt-throwing will be the order of the day in the closing weeks of the campaign. Democrats are trying hard to connect the Abramoff scandal to Republican National Chairman Ken Mehlman. Republicans are targeting Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) on his personal finances.
- Democrats are stunned by the removal from '08 presidential consideration of former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner. He has told friends he thinks he could win the nomination, but clearly did not want to undertake the ordeal. Unconfirmed, but continual, reports come out that former Vice President Al Gore is thinking of making the run.
Overview: The recent approval of military tribunal legislation, port security, and border security are now empty events that lack the punch so badly needed for a GOP fourth quarter comeback. Everything has been sucked down by the Foley affair.
With hopes of the late comeback faded, the Republican strategy has changed from that of a quarterback on a fourth-quarter come-from-behind mission to that of an overwhelmed emergency medical technician performing triage on several dying patients. The only thought now is to minimize losses by plugging whatever holes can be plugged. Late decisions have to be made about who lives and who dies. The GOP has to decide where it can win, and it cannot afford to waste time or resources on those who cannot be saved. At this point, the best indication of how races are going is where the money is being spent.
If the election were held today, Democrats would gain control of the House of Representatives. Republicans -20, Democrats +20
Republican-Held House Seats In Play |
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Likely Republican Retention |
Tossup |
Likely Democratic Takeover |
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Leans GOP |
Leans Dem |
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AZ-1 (Renzi) |
CO-4 (Musgrave) |
CT-2 (Simmons) |
AZ-8 (Open [Kolbe]) |
AZ-5 (Hayworth) |
CT-5 (Johnson) |
CT-4 (Shays) |
CO-7 (Open [Beauprez]) |
CA-11 (Pombo) |
FL-13 (Open [Harris]) |
FL-16 (Open [Foley]) |
IA-1 (Open [Nussle]) |
CO-5 (Open [Hefley]) |
IL-6 (Open [Hyde]) |
FL-22 (Shaw) |
IN-2 (Chocola) |
FL-8 (Keller) |
KY-3 (Northup) |
IN-9 (Sodrel) |
IN-8 (Hostettler) |
NV-3 (Porter) |
MN-6 (Open [Kennedy]) |
KY-4 (Davis) |
NC-11 (Taylor) |
NY-20 (Sweeney) |
NV-2 (Open [Gibbons]) |
NM-1 (Wilson) |
NY-26 (Reynolds) |
TX-23 (Bonilla) |
NY-24 (Open [Boehlert]) |
OH-15 (Pryce) |
PA-7 (Weldon) |
WY-AL (Cubin) |
OH-1 (Chabot) |
OH-18 (Open [Ney]) |
PA-10 (Sherwood) |
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OH-2 (Schmidt) |
PA-6 (Gerlach) |
TX-22 (Open [DeLay]) |
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PA-8 (Fitzpatrick) |
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VA-2 (Drake) |
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WA-8 (Reichert) |
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WI-8 (Open [Green]) |
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Democrat-Held House Seats In Play |
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Likely Democratic Retention |
Tossup
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Likely Republican Takeover |
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Leans Dem |
Leans GOP |
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IL-17 (Open [Evans]) |
GA-8 (Marshall) |
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LA-3 (Melancon) |
GA-12 (Barrow) |
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OH-6 (Open [Strickland]) |
IA-3 (Boswell) |
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OH-13 (Open [Brown]) |
IL-8 (Bean) |
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PA-12 (Murtha) |
TX-17 (Edwards) |
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SC-5 (Spratt) |
VT-AL (Open [Sanders]) |
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WV-1 (Mollohan) |
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Kolbe's lack of endorsement could probably now be considered a badge of honor for Graf, whose total lack of fundraising aptitude has forced him to be stingy with his money. Despite being outspent by state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D) by a two-to-one margin, he is polling only six to eight points behind - much better than anyone had expected, particularly against a candidate of Giffords's caliber.
This race, for the district being vacated by Rep. Katherine Harris (R), is still much closer than Republicans would like. Leaning Republican Retention.
State Rep. Joe Negron (R), a popular conservative legislator who is well-known statewide, is the ballot replacement for disgraced former Rep. Foley. Foley's name is the one that actually appears on the ballot, and that is the only reason businessman Tim Mahoney (D) stands to win in this Republican-heavy district.
The question is whether enough voters know to pull the lever for Foley on Election Day without fear of re-electing an alleged Internet sex predator. This is like a write-in campaign for Negron, but easier enough that perhaps GOP chances should not be completely discounted. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Starting with a tie, Roskam enters the final three weeks with seven times as much cash, $1.5 million to $206,000. Duckworth's money was spent on ads that have already run and have now have stopped running. She will raise some money before the end, but her disadvantage is now huge. Her campaign has far too many staffers, and her financial situation is probably more dire than the $206,000 number would suggest, given campaigns' natural tendencies to defer bills into the next reporting period.
With Duckworth broke, the only money game now is between the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) on one side and the NRCC and the Roskam campaign on the other. Roskam is now in a position to put this one away. Republicans cannot afford to lose this race. Leaning Republican Retention.
The news that the FBI has raided his daughter's Philadelphia home, and the home of her business partner, comes at just the wrong time for an already vulnerable member of Congress. It does not matter whether Weldon is innocent or guilty, he is now dead in the water. Notably, the Justice Department usually refrains from such activity around election time for just this reason. Likely Democratic Takeover.
Fitzpatrick is in the best shape of the endangered Republican congressmen in Pennsylvania. The only polls he has ever trailed in are Democratic polls. His demise on election night would signal that a 1994-style landslide is in the making. Leaning Republican Retention.
After an alleged assault on his mistress - and of course, the accompanying revelation that he had a mistress - Sherwood is on track to lose a strongly Republican district to a boilerplate Democratic candidate - and in just the wrong year for the GOP. A conservative nobody candidate nearly won the primary against Sherwood after spending less than $5,000 on the race. For purely political reasons, Sherwood should have been forced into retirement. Instead, Iraq war veteran Chris Carney (D) is likely next year to represent a district that is far to his right.
Sherwood's last chance is a very risky, all-or-nothing strategy. His wife Carol has written a mailer defending her husband and attacking Carney for the negative ads against Sherwood based on his marital infidelity. It might work, but it could also appear exploitative and backfire. Likely Democratic Takeover.
Kagen also blurted out at one point, on the crime issue, that non-violent criminals should not be incarcerated. It was probably just a mistake, but an embarrassing one that leads the viewer to question a candidate's competence. There are three more debates, and Gard, the experienced politician, should best Kagen in all three.
Kagen's early lead in the polls, the result of heavy advertising since March, has narrowed to two points. There is no reason to believe that his lead has survived the first debate, which was well publicized in his hometown, much less the next three, which come next week.
Either way, this race is already a victory for Democrats. It is very close in a Republican district, and it's costing the DCCC nothing. Leaning Republican Retention.
Santorum trails not only in the polls but also in cash as the final days approach. Only a complete meltdown by his opponent, state Treasurer Bob Casey (D), could save him. People really dislike Santorum. Even though he always comes off as vastly more knowledgeable and intelligent than Casey in every debate, his responses are abrasive, sparing no nasty comment for his opponent. Santorum appears frustrated that a man like Casey is beating him.
The quest of former Safeco CEO Mike McGavick (R) to unseat Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) also appears to have floundered, even though his polls look more promising than Santorum's. We believe that if the election were held today, Democrats would gain four seats. Republicans -4, Democrats +4.
Democrat-Held Senate Seats In Play |
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Likely Democratic Retention |
Tossup |
Likely Republican Takeover |
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Leans Dem |
Leans GOP
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Michigan (Stabenow) |
Maryland (Open [Sarbanes]) |
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Minnesota (Open [Dayton]) |
New Jersey (Menendez) |
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Nebraska (Nelson) |
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Vermont (Open [Jeffords]) |
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Washington (Cantwell) |
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West Virginia (Byrd) |
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Republican-Held Senate Seats In Play |
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Likely Republican Retention |
Tossup |
Likely Democratic Takeover |
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Leans GOP |
Leans Dem |
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Arizona (Kyl) |
Tennessee (Open [Frist]) |
Ohio (DeWine) |
Montana (Burns) |
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Missouri (Talent) |
Rhode Island (Chafee) |
Pennsylvania (Santorum) |
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Virginia (Allen) |
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Talent is hitting McCaskill's personal tax efficiency strategies, which supposedly involve no-income limited partnerships and offshore tax havens. Talent has shown he's no pushover, but he also risks appearing too nasty as he goes after her. His huge cash advantage at this late stage could decide the race. Leaning Republican Retention.
Republican-Held Governorships In Play |
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Likely Republican Retention |
Tossup |
Likely Democratic Takeover |
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Leans GOP |
Leans Dem |
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CA (Schwarzenegger) |
AK (Open [Murkowski]) |
AR (Open [Huckabee]) |
MA (Open [Romney]) |
CT (Rell) |
MN (Pawlenty) |
CO (Open [Owens]) |
NY (Open [Pataki]) |
FL (Open [Bush]) |
NV (Open [Guinn]) |
MD (Ehrlich) |
OH (Open [Taft]) |
GA (Perdue) |
RI (Carcieri) |
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HI (Lingle) |
TX (Perry) |
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SC (Sanford) |
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Democrat-Held Governorships In Play |
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Likely Democratic Retention |
Tossup |
Likely Republican Takeover |
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Leans Dem |
Leans GOP |
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AZ (Napolitano) |
ME (Baldacci) |
IA (Open [Vilsack]) |
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KS (Sebelius) |
MI (Granholm) |
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PA (Rendell) |
OK (Henry) |
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OR (Kulongoski) |
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WI (Doyle) |
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Sincerely, |
Robert D. Novak |