Week of September 13, 2006

Democrats here also hope to make inroads by criticizing the Medicare Part D prescription-drug benefit They hope to make this a top-three campaign issue, but this is probably too clever by half. The so-called "donut hole" issue, which all three candidates are discussing, is already complicated and confusing for anyone outside of Washington (or inside it, for that matter). But the biggest problem with the drug issue is the way in which Part D’s creation neutered it.

One must look back to the late 1990s to see how powerful the prescription drug issue once was to understand this point. As long as Democrats were able to complain that Republicans would do nothing to help the elderly afford drugs, the issue was a slam-dunk. President Bush’s team was so frightened of the issue that they campaigned on a large drug plan (for indigent retirees), and then created an even larger one in his first term (for every retiree). Conservatives always complained that the benefit would never create votes for the GOP, but this was not quite the point. The existence of Part D means that now any talk about the issue becomes a question of tinkering with what’s already there. That makes this a much weaker, more marginal issue now. It quells previously existing discontent.

The Democratic candidates strongly disagree with this view, but 74 percent or more of the retirees in each of the three districts have already signed up for the plan (roughly 86 percent of Connecticut retirees have some kind of government drug plan). So the plan could not have been that confusing for people.

A politician who delivers like that, who returns to his district almost every week and who expects a tough race every cycle, is very hard to beat. Simmons is just the kind of candidate who could survive the large Democratic wave many expect this year. But this district, which has a history of close results, poses a great challenge to him every time.

Johnson, a moderate, has racked up large enough margins in most years that Democrats have been afraid to challenge her. But State Sen. Chris Murphy (D), a left-wing legislator who is young, intelligent and very articulate, decided to take a shot this year. We were first alerted to this possibility in January 2005 through the progressive-left network with which Murphy keeps ideological company.

Murphy comes off as very sincere in conversation. He has shown real smarts so far in how he has handled Johnson’s early attack ads, and he’s also proven that he can raise some money. His record may be a bit left of the district — Kerry won here with only 49 percent — but he is good enough on his feet to defend his principles.

Plus, if a campaign about the intricacies of the Medicare drug plan were to work anywhere, they are most likely to work against the entrenched incumbent who designed and managed the bill on the House floor. But Johnson feels confident enough that she is advertising based on the drug plan. Murphy has the ability to keep it within 10 points, but he remains a long-shot. Johnson has never been one to take it easy, which is how she has kept such a blue district in her column for so long. Johnson is already running her seventh ad of the race, a clear sign that her campaign recognizes the seriousness of the challenge.

Democrats are happy just to have this race on the table at all, and the late, baffling decision by Lucas (who retired in 2004) to attempt a comeback was a huge boon for them. But the race could quickly turn into a money pit if they aren’t careful. The DCCC has reserved airtime here but is not currently running ads, according to "The Hotline."

Davis is in a tough spot for an incumbent — he’s below 50 percent, and many voters will still think Lucas is the incumbent. Davis nearly beat Lucas in 2002, but this year is obviously different in terms of the national mood.

The National Republican Campaign Committee, confident of a Kagen victory, had already begun running ads against him before the primary in order to prevent him from running away with the race. Republicans hope to publicize the number of patients Kagen has sued, and other problems with the political novice, until November.