Week of August 23, 2006

There is still time left, but the buzz on the Hill is that many Republican staffers — including those working for safe members — are seeking employment elsewhere, dreading the miserable possibility of life in the congressional minority.

The Democrats’ chances at the House are very real right now. Republicans are hobbled by the fact that they have so many shaky seats to defend and so few that they can legitimately target. If they are to tighten the gap — and a USA Today poll released Tuesday indicates that they may now be doing so on the generic ballot — they must give voters a reason to come to the polls for them. They will probably lose any election that merely pits them as the status quo against Democrats who could be even worse — who could, for example, impeach President Bush. Republicans must also offer something positive to voters, but their lack of legislative accomplishments in this Congress makes it difficult.

Democrats will work over the next two months to move as many of the seats as possible toward the right side of the chart. The more they can force Republicans to play defense, the more money they can pull from their own incumbents and put into races in the middle columns.

Because of this, Sen. Lieberman has a lease on life in his independent bid against the Democratic nominee, Ned Lamont. Lieberman’s narrow defeat in the Democratic primary — instead of the drubbing most had expected — has made him strong enough to begin with a lead in some polls, although he and Lamont are tied in the most recent one. He draws heavily from Republican voters for his support.

Lieberman is an experienced hand at campaigning, not only on the congressional level but also during his campaign for Vice President in 2000. Lamont, by contrast, is a rookie who can speak smoothly at times, but clearly lacks polish at others. Just one example: During an appearance on Larry Kudlow‘s CNBC television program, "Kudlow & Company," Lamont looked like a deer in the headlights when asked about "Section 404" of the Sarbanes-Oxley law, even after saying a few other intelligent things about the law.

But Lamont spent $6 million for the Democratic nomination — he will not hesitate to spend even more to win a Senate seat.

In one sense, this race has no significance. Lieberman is a liberal whose association with Republican policies is strictly limited to the Iraq issue. This seat remains in Democratic hands whether Lieberman or Lamont wins.

Outside of Connecticut, the race does have significance for two kinds of voters and donors. The first is a sizable bloc of independent voters for whom national security is the most important issue. They may be frightened to see that there is no room in the Democratic Party for someone like Lieberman, who toes the left-wing line on nearly every issue except national security. The second group particularly interested in this race is Jews. Many of them will be turned off by the left-wing rhetoric about Lieberman’s "divided loyalties," and upset to see that Lieberman’s support of Israel is so unacceptable to Democrats that they would dump an otherwise liberal senator for a newbie liberal candidate.

Republicans’ only hope for defeating incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) (and even then, there is only the slimmest long-shot chance) is for Harris to be upset in the September 5 primary. She has polled consistently in the 30s among Republicans, with her second-rate opponents — former Admiral LeRoy Collins, attorney Will McBride and developer Peter Monroe — in the single digits, and about 30 percent undecided. Harris will win unless Republicans unite around one of the other candidates. Of the three, McBride is the most likely to carry the conservative mantle, but time is running out.

On the Democratic side, the race is much closer. Rep. Jim Davis (D) leads state Sen. Rod Smith (D) in every survey, but the most reliable survey of likely voters suggests a close race with Smith coming up behind. As he attacks Davis for his poor congressional attendance record, Smith could surge at the end. But early voting has already begun, and it could prove too late. Moreover, Smith has nearly run out of money in the home stretch, and a group aligned with the sugar industry is basically financing him at this point.