Week of August 9, 2006

But everything had changed by this week. The rally for the Fed’s pause in rate hikes at its August 8 meeting failed to materialize. After a strong day, the Dow plummeted on the news. Suddenly, the bad news wasn’t so good any more. Traders are now less concerned about inflation and Fed action than they are of a true economic slowdown.

It was clear from the Supreme Court’s ruling that whatever district lines were adopted, Webb County would be put all in one district or another. If it had been put into Bonilla’s district, it would have put Henry Cuellar and his entire base into the 23rd, forcing Bonilla to face once again the rival who came close to defeating him in 2002 — Cuellar took about 47 percent that year against Bonilla.

But now Bonilla loses his Western section of Webb County, and he also loses the Hill Country counties — Bandera, Kendall, Kerr and Real — that had provided him with a strong white Republican base to the North of San Antonio. This poses a challenge for him: His new district is more Democratic and more Hispanic than his old district. Still, it is more favorable to him than either the 2002 district or the 2000 district was.

The parts of South San Antonio he has taken from Cuellar are notorious for their low voter turnout. They also provide Bonilla with a chance to reach out to more Hispanic voters — critical to the future of the state GOP. Bonilla was a known television personality in San Antonio prior to his election to Congress.

Lieberman has been a liberal senator on every issue except for the Iraq War. He made up much ground in the two weeks before the primary election with ads that admitted his disconnect with Democrats on that issue, but also highlighted the inexperience of his opponent.

Lieberman’s fatal mistake was his decision to seek the independent candidacy as an alternative, in case he lost this race. As soon as he admitted he was gathering signatures for an independent run, his credibility among Democratic voters sank. The margin Tuesday night was close enough to suggest that he could have won had he not panicked too soon. As the close result demonstrates, he could have won this primary if he had just hung on.

Lamont’s campaign benefited from the organizing ability of the Internet left, but the real driving force here — and this cannot be overemphasized — was Lamont’s money. This was not a case of a ragtag band of Internet warriors pushing a long-shot candidate through a primary with small donations. Lamont received very little of his money from donors. This was a case of superior Internet organizing and leftist ideology, complemented by very large sums of political cash donated by Lamont himself, who, by the end, was putting half a million into the campaign each week. He spend roughly $6 million to buy the nomination.

Gibbons’ husband is likely to win the governor’s race, prompting questions about how she could serve both in Congress and as first lady of Nevada. Her statement that being first lady is a "part-time job" upset several people, including the current first lady. Dawn Gibbons is also the only candidate whose record on taxes is totally and unambiguously pro-tax hike.

Angle, the conservative in the race and the Club for Growth candidate, has been the most visible, working the ground hard and airing the most prominent television and radio ads. She suffered a setback, however, when she failed to gather enough signatures to place a property-tax-limitation initiative on the ballot.

Republicans can now replace Ney on the ballot through a special primary. State Sen. Joy Padgett (R) immediately confirmed her candidacy and sent her announcement to Ney’s e-mail list. Obviously, everything was arranged in advance. Padgett represents four of the district’s counties.

There is speculation that a so-called "sore-loser-law" could keep Padgett off the ballot. She was the unsuccessful running mate of Atty. Gen. and gubernatorial candidate Jim Petro (R). But a close reading of the statute gives the impression that it would not apply to her, since she is not running as an independent candidate in a general election.

Either way, the seat is safer for Republicans because of Ney’s exit.

DeLay was in an unenviable position. Had he tried a comeback, his opponent, former Rep. Nick Lampson (D), would have used against DeLay his insistence, in legal language, that he is actually now a resident of Virginia and not of Texas.

Write-in candidacies rarely succeed, but that is really because strong candidates are seldom write-ins. Usually, good candidates have their act together and qualify for the ballot. This will be an exception.

Florida: With the news that she hid a Justice Department subpoena from her campaign staff, Rep. Katherine Harris‘s (R) Senate candidacy has become even more problematic — to the point that the state party chairwoman has announced Harris will not have the party’s support in the event that she wins the nomination. This campaign is a train wreck. Harris lost the trust of her most recent campaign staff — several have recently resigned — and she might even have broken House rules by failing to have the subpoena announced on the House floor.

The problem, her sympathizers report, is the absence of her old staffers from years ago. They knew how to deal with Harris’s manic personality, whereas the new campaign staffers have not understood the depth of the problem. Harris’s ability to win the primary is very much in doubt, but it is not clear who could overtake her.