Washington, DC
Vol. 41, No. 16b
To: Our Readers
- Clinton stages confrontation with Rumsfeld and calls for his removal.
- Fed holds rates steady, causing traders to stop worrying about Bernanke and start worrying about the economy.
- Texas redistricting will apply to this year’s races, but is unlikely to change partisan composition.
- Incumbents Lieberman, McKinney and Schwarz all lose, as we expected (we go seven for eight in primaries).
- Scandal-scarred Ney drops out of his race, providing good news for Republicans.
Outlook
- The primary election defeat of Sen. Joseph Lieberman (D-Conn.), however narrow, confirms that Democratic candidates will become ever more militant in opposing the Iraq War. In particular, 2008 presidential candidates, as a matter of course, by the end of this year, will be calling for an immediate troop withdrawal.
- Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) has already started to move far from the Lieberman standard with her call for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld‘s removal. But her staged confrontation with Rumsfeld at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing last week was unimpressive and should give pause to her presidential supporters (see below).
- The primary election defeats of Lieberman, Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-Ga.) and Rep. Joe Schwarz (R-Mich.) should not be over-interpreted as omens of a wholesale slaughter of congressional incumbents in November. Each of the defeated incumbents had special problems (see below).
- However, Republican chances for retaining the House are declining. The unexpected GOP failure in the courts means there will be a write-in Republican candidate in the Tom DeLay district in Texas, which turns a relatively safe seat into a probable loss.
- The Bush Administration’s performance in handling the Middle East crisis has been ineffective. The U.S. depended on Israeli military power to quickly subdue Hezbollah, and its failure to do so has further isolated the American position in the Mideast.
- Congress left for its August recess with Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) reeling from inability to pass even the Defense appropriations bill, much less the estate tax relief bill. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) looks like the dominant figure in Congress.
- The negative market reaction following the Federal Reserve’s expected pause shows widespread investor belief that the central bank has overshot the market in fighting inflation. The question now is what the Fed will do about the rise of oil and other commodity prices that it has no ability to control.
But everything had changed by this week. The rally for the Fed’s pause in rate hikes at its August 8 meeting failed to materialize. After a strong day, the Dow plummeted on the news. Suddenly, the bad news wasn’t so good any more. Traders are now less concerned about inflation and Fed action than they are of a true economic slowdown.
The language in the Fed’s statement noted that inflation was problematic but likely to moderate soon. This construction was so dovish that futures traders estimate less than a 30 percent chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting.
Another ambiguity put to rest is when the new districts will apply. They all go into effect immediately, with the March primaries thrown out in the five affected districts. Candidates in these districts will have to re-file for special elections that will take place the same day as the general election, November 7. There are no primaries before the special election, and there will be a runoff if no one gets more than 50 percent.
Ciro Rodriguez: Rodriguez (D) is already hinting that he may challenge Rep. Henry Bonilla (R), since the San Antonio base from his old district has been added to the 23rd District. But the addition probably won’t be enough to make Bonilla truly vulnerable, particularly considering that the Republican currently has $2.3 million in cash and has spent years making inroads in parts of the district that have never heard of Rodriguez. Rodriguez, whose last unsuccessful campaign is still in debt, is probably frozen out of Congress — until and unless Bonilla moves on.
It was clear from the Supreme Court’s ruling that whatever district lines were adopted, Webb County would be put all in one district or another. If it had been put into Bonilla’s district, it would have put Henry Cuellar and his entire base into the 23rd, forcing Bonilla to face once again the rival who came close to defeating him in 2002 — Cuellar took about 47 percent that year against Bonilla.
But now Bonilla loses his Western section of Webb County, and he also loses the Hill Country counties — Bandera, Kendall, Kerr and Real — that had provided him with a strong white Republican base to the North of San Antonio. This poses a challenge for him: His new district is more Democratic and more Hispanic than his old district. Still, it is more favorable to him than either the 2002 district or the 2000 district was.
The parts of South San Antonio he has taken from Cuellar are notorious for their low voter turnout. They also provide Bonilla with a chance to reach out to more Hispanic voters — critical to the future of the state GOP. Bonilla was a known television personality in San Antonio prior to his election to Congress.
The bottom line for him is that he will have to work for his re-election, unlike in 2004. Bonilla’s district now has a good chance of going Democratic when he retires. Likely Republican Retention.
Lieberman has been a liberal senator on every issue except for the Iraq War. He made up much ground in the two weeks before the primary election with ads that admitted his disconnect with Democrats on that issue, but also highlighted the inexperience of his opponent.
Lieberman’s fatal mistake was his decision to seek the independent candidacy as an alternative, in case he lost this race. As soon as he admitted he was gathering signatures for an independent run, his credibility among Democratic voters sank. The margin Tuesday night was close enough to suggest that he could have won had he not panicked too soon. As the close result demonstrates, he could have won this primary if he had just hung on.
Lamont’s campaign benefited from the organizing ability of the Internet left, but the real driving force here — and this cannot be overemphasized — was Lamont’s money. This was not a case of a ragtag band of Internet warriors pushing a long-shot candidate through a primary with small donations. Lamont received very little of his money from donors. This was a case of superior Internet organizing and leftist ideology, complemented by very large sums of political cash donated by Lamont himself, who, by the end, was putting half a million into the campaign each week. He spend roughly $6 million to buy the nomination.
Lieberman came close enough that he has said he will run as an independent candidate. On a national scale, the spectacle of this race could hurt Democrats, especially if national Democratic officeholders keep their pledge to support Lamont. But in this particular race, Republicans have no chance. We like Lamont’s chances to win, but regardless of whether he or Lieberman triumphs, the seat will remain in Democratic hands. Likely Democratic Retention.
This seat is strongly Democratic and not competitive in this fall’s general election. Likely Democratic Retention.
Schwarz will serve as the moderate-to-liberal scalp that former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), president of the conservative Club for Growth, has been seeking to help with fundraising. Walberg will easily win this fall in a heavily GOP district. Likely Republican Retention.
Gibbons’ husband is likely to win the governor’s race, prompting questions about how she could serve both in Congress and as first lady of Nevada. Her statement that being first lady is a "part-time job" upset several people, including the current first lady. Dawn Gibbons is also the only candidate whose record on taxes is totally and unambiguously pro-tax hike.
Angle, the conservative in the race and the Club for Growth candidate, has been the most visible, working the ground hard and airing the most prominent television and radio ads. She suffered a setback, however, when she failed to gather enough signatures to place a property-tax-limitation initiative on the ballot.
Heller, more moderate, began with the lead. He has also been very visible over the air. The district is dominated in terms of population by Reno and Carson City. Angle’s base is in Reno, Heller’s is in Carson City. The two are running neck and neck. Leaning Heller.
Republicans can now replace Ney on the ballot through a special primary. State Sen. Joy Padgett (R) immediately confirmed her candidacy and sent her announcement to Ney’s e-mail list. Obviously, everything was arranged in advance. Padgett represents four of the district’s counties.
There is speculation that a so-called "sore-loser-law" could keep Padgett off the ballot. She was the unsuccessful running mate of Atty. Gen. and gubernatorial candidate Jim Petro (R). But a close reading of the statute gives the impression that it would not apply to her, since she is not running as an independent candidate in a general election.
Either way, the seat is safer for Republicans because of Ney’s exit.
Now it really matters that Democrats nominated their weaker, more liberal candidate, Zack Space, instead of Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer. If Padgett makes the ballot, this seat becomes "safe Republican" against Space. Leaning Republican Retention.
DeLay was in an unenviable position. Had he tried a comeback, his opponent, former Rep. Nick Lampson (D), would have used against DeLay his insistence, in legal language, that he is actually now a resident of Virginia and not of Texas.
Write-in candidacies rarely succeed, but that is really because strong candidates are seldom write-ins. Usually, good candidates have their act together and qualify for the ballot. This will be an exception.
This district went 64 percent for President Bush in 2004. Lampson, who used to represent a different district, has money but will not find it easy to win here, even under these circumstances. The big question is whom local Republicans will anoint. Leaning Democratic Takeover.
Florida: With the news that she hid a Justice Department subpoena from her campaign staff, Rep. Katherine Harris‘s (R) Senate candidacy has become even more problematic — to the point that the state party chairwoman has announced Harris will not have the party’s support in the event that she wins the nomination. This campaign is a train wreck. Harris lost the trust of her most recent campaign staff — several have recently resigned — and she might even have broken House rules by failing to have the subpoena announced on the House floor.
The problem, her sympathizers report, is the absence of her old staffers from years ago. They knew how to deal with Harris’s manic personality, whereas the new campaign staffers have not understood the depth of the problem. Harris’s ability to win the primary is very much in doubt, but it is not clear who could overtake her.
At this point, Florida Republicans take for granted that the general election will not be winnable if Harris is nominated. What they most want to avoid, then, is anything resembling a close race, which could pump up Democratic turnout and endanger the large GOP margins in the state House and Senate, as well as the governor’s race.
On the other hand, the other Republican contenders in the September 5 Senate primary are third-tier candidates whose chances against incumbent Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson would not be much better. The only possibility of making this into a race is for the nominee to drop out and make way for a Republican savior — a last-minute candidate to be chosen by the party. The opportunity to run without a primary would surely appeal to someone — possibly a member of the congressional delegation, but more likely a celebrity candidate.
Governor 2006
Murkowski, who has paid the price for cutting government programs and for appointing his daughter to the U.S. Senate, will come in third on Tuesday in the primary against conservative former Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin (R) and businessman John Binkley (R). Palin will come in first, and she is also the most likely to keep the seat. Leaning Palin.
Sincerely, |
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Robert D. Novak |
