Rasmussen Poll: Sen. Allen No Shoo-In

According poll results released yesterday by Rasmussen Reports, Sen. George Allen’s (R.-Va.) re-election might not be as easy as many pundits believed it would be following former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner’s (D.) decision not to challenge Allen.

From Rasmussen:

In mid-January, a Rasmussen Reports election poll showed businessman Harris Miller (D) trailing Virginia Senator George Allen (R) by 30 points. At the time, Miller had just announced his candidacy.

After Miller gave the Democrats a candidate to challenge the incumbent, former Navy secretary James Webb soon became the second Democrat in the race. Webb had been considering a run for months but formally took the plunge only recently, on February 7.

Today, Allen leads Miller 48% to 35%. He leads Webb by a similar margin, 49% to 37%. It is significant that Allen’s support has now dipped below 50% when pitted either against potential challenger.

Senator Allen’s favorable numbers have also declined since January. Sixty-one percent (61%) now view him favorably; in January, 70% viewed him favorably.

Considering the hype surrounding Allen’s likely run for the GOP presidential nomination, this does not look good at all. An Allen defeat in the ’06 elections would upset a lot of conservatives.

  • Newsmax features Allen on their cover this month with the headline “Star Player for 2008” and a 13-page feature touting “George Allen’s Common Sense.”
  • As HEO reported, the CPAC 2006 straw poll showed that Allen had moved “from a middle-of-the-road presidential candidate one year ago to the favorite among conservatives in the 2006 straw poll, conducted by Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates. The unscientific poll of CPAC attendees gave Allen 22% — double the 11% he received in last year’s straw poll. Although conservatives remain divided, Allen’s plurality cements his status as one the leading Republicans.”

Also disconcerting for those who see Allen as the possible GOP standard-bearer for 2008 is how the senator stacks up against fellow Virginian Warner. Rasmussen reports:

Former Governor Warner, thought a likely Democratic candicate for President in 2008, is viewed favorably by 71%. Senator Allen has long been considered a GOP candidate raising the somewhat remote possibility of an all-Virginia Presidential election in 2008. Warner has an edge over Allen in the Presidential match-up for Virginia’s Electoral Votes.