Matt,
You make some excellent observations about Sen. Frist. He certainly has fewer friends in Washington these days thanks to his blunder on the stem-cell issue.
Not only does Frist look like a John Kerry flip-flopper, but he also left conservatives in the Senate (Santorum and Brownback) in a position to oppose him on the measure. And, as Bob Novak has already written, the decision on the stem-cell bill couldn't have come at a worse time. Just as the GOP was finally passing legislation, Frist steals the headlines.
But on the broader issue of his support among conservative Red State voters, I agree that appealing to NASCAR voters is a smart, and perhaps winning, strategy. I just wonder if he'll look as goofy at a NASCAR race as Kerry did at the Gunslick Trap Club.