GOP Will Increase House Majority

With less than two weeks to go before the balloting nationwide, not even the most partisan Democrats—including House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt (Mo.) or Democratic Congressional Committee Chairman Nita Lowey (N.Y.)—dare to predict that their party will make the necessary net gain of six seats in the House to give them a majority after eight years. The current line-up is 223 Republicans, 208 Democrats, 1 independent (Sanders, Vermont) and 3 vacancies (Mink, Hawaii, and Hall and Traficant, both Ohio). In striking contrast to the last House races after reapportionment a decade ago, when a postwar high of 65 U.S. representatives left Congress and pundits put more than 150 districts in the “competitive” column, this year the retirements, resignations, primary defeats and deaths are many fewer (involving 23 Republican districts and 19 held by Democrats). Moreover, non-partisan sources such as the National Journal conclude that there are, at the most, 45 districts that are genuinely competitive. Thanks to several “incumbent protection plans” worked out between the parties in a number of state legislatures– California, New Jersey, New York, and Virginia come quickly to mind—numerous contests are already decided and several incumbents who had close races in 2000 (Democrat Rush Holt and Republican Michael Ferguson of New Jersey, for example) are sitting pretty politically in ’02. In Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and (to a lesser extent) Ohio, Republicans controlled the governorship and legislature and played political hardball with congressional districts. (They tried in Texas, but were thwarted by the state courts.) Seeing that their chances of political survival were minimal, Rep. James Barcia (Mich.) chose the unusual route of running for state senate and Rep. Tony Hall (Ohio) accepted an appointment to a United Nations position from President Bush. Democrats were in the political driver’s seats in Georgia and Maryland and, similarly, they played rough with GOP districts. In the three dozen districts that are truly competitive, Republicans have an edge—one that may have been enhanced by the support for the President over Iraq in recent weeks. All told, Republicans will probably expand their membership by 10 on November 5, making a line up of 233 Republicans, 201 Democrats and 1 Independant. A look, then, at the House races in all 50 states. . . . ALABAMA—The seven-member House delegation will remain 5-to-2 Republican. After beating Rep. Earl Hilliard in the Democratic primary because of the incumbent’s virulently anti-Israel remarks, lawyer Artur Davis will have no trouble holding the majority-black 7th District. Similarly, retiring Rep. Sonny Callahan will pass on the 1st District (Mobile) to his hand-picked GOP heir, longtime top aide, Jo Bonner. In the 3rd District—home base of the late George Wallace—Rep. Bob Riley is stepping down to be the GOP nominee for governor. Former Democratic State Chairman Joe Turnham is running as a “pro-gun, pro-God, pro-good ol’ boy” Democrat, but what appears to be a GOP tide statewide and in the 3rd District will likely tip the House race to Republican State Rep. Mike Rogers. (No Change—5R, 2D) ALASKA—After 30 years, Republican Rep. Don Young is an institution in his state and should win again with no difficulty. (No Change—1R) ARIZONA—Restaurateur-insuranceman Rick Renzi, emerging from a crowded Republican primary field in the newly created 1st District, would have had a dogfight on his hands had Democrats nominated either a cousin of the famous Udall clan or a former Clinton White House aide. As it was, the Democratic nominee businessman George Cordova, is a weaker contender, and Renzi should emerge triumphant in a district George W. Bush carried handsomely two years ago. Having upset the favorite as successor to House Armed Services Committee Chairman Bob Stump (R.-Ariz.) in the Republican primary, conservative former Rep. Trent Franks should now win the Glendale-based 2nd District in November. In the state’s other newly created (and heavily Democratic) 7th District, the sure winner is Democratic primary winner and former Pima County Commissioner Raul Grijalva. (Republicans +1, Democrats +1—R6, D2) ARKANSAS—The Razorback State’s U.S. House line-up of three Democrats and one Republican will remain unchanged. (No Change—1R, 3D) CALIFORNIA—Under the redistricting plan crafted by Democratic Senate President John Burton, the present U.S. House line-up of 32 Democrats and 20 Republicans becomes a 32-to-21 Democratic edge. Moreover, the new, 39th District in Los Angeles County was crafted for a Latino Democrat, although nominee Linda Sanchez, sister of Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D.-Calif.), appears to be having a tougher-than-expected general election challenge from Republican Tim Escobar, a retired U.S. Air Force officer. Under Burton’s map, the Long Beach district of retiring Rep. Steve Horn (R.-Calif.) was replaced by the strongly Republican 21st District (Fresno), which will almost surely elect Devin Nunes, dairyman and former state head of the U.S. Agriculture Department’s office. The only truly competitive district is the 18th (San Joaquin Valley), where scandal-tarred Rep. Gary Condit lost the Democratic primary to his former aide and protégé, State Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza. Conservative State Sen. Dick Monteith has led Cardoza in several polls and, just last week, Condit’s son Chad sent out a districtwide letter denouncing Cardoza as a betrayer and self-promoter, which should put Monteith over the top. (Republicans +1—21R, 32D) COLORADO—There are only two competitive districts in the Centennial State. State Sen. Marilyn Musgrave—a heroine to fellow conservatives—should hold onto the 4th District (suburban Denver) seat being relinquished by fellow Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer. Musgrave, however, has a stronger-than-anticipated Democratic challenger in State Sen. Stan Matsunaka. An even tighter contest appears to be in the works in the newly created (and more marginal) 7th District. Despite a spirited challenge from 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mike Feeley, former State GOP Chairman Bob Beauprez should take the seat—in part because of long coattails of popular Republican Gov. Bill Owens, who is headed for a record re-election. (Republicans +1—4R, 3D) CONNECTICUT—Two years after he became one of only two Republicans in the nation to unseat an incumbent Democratic House member, Rep. Rob Simmons is headed for re-election in the 2nd District over Democrat Joe Courtney, whose father was the longtime head of the FBI’s Connecticut office. In the census-forced showdown between Democratic Rep. James Maloney and Republican Rep. Nancy Johnson, all polls show Johnson with a solid lead. (Democrats –1—3R, 2D) DELAWARE—Rep.-at-large Mike Castle should win again with no trouble. (No Change—1R) FLORIDA—Under Gov. Jeb Bush and the Republican-run state legislature, the Sunshine State’s two new U.S. House seats are near-cinches to be won by Republicans who, interestingly, played supporting roles in the 2000 Presidential election drama: House Speaker Tom Feeney in the 24th District and State Sen. Mario Diaz-Balart, brother of Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart in the neighboring 25th. A third player from 2000, Secretary of State Katherine Harris, always introduced to wild cheers at GOP dinners and rallies as “an American heroine,” should have no trouble succeeding retiring Republican Rep. Dan Miller in the Sarasota-based 13th District. In the 5th District, Republicans still have some hopes of dislodging Democratic Rep. Karen Thurman, who lost much of her Gainesville base, with State Sen. Ginny Brown Waite. But the insurgent candidacy of former Reform Party National Chairman Jack Gargan, who drew 34% of the vote as Thurman’s lone opponent in 1998, is helping the Democrat. Having sweated through veteran Rep. Clay Shaw’s closest-in-the-nation (599 votes) two years ago, Republicans feel he will easily defeat Palm Beach County Commissioner Carol Roberts in the coastal 22nd District this year. A just-completed American Viewpoint poll showed Shaw leading Roberts by 56% to 30% Of late, an unexpected contest has been developing in the 7th, where GOP Rep. John Mica faces wealthy personal injury lawyer Wayne Hogan. After ten years, however, Mica should survive Hogan’s self-funded challenge. In the 17th, the only district being vacated by a Democrat, State Sen. Kendrick Meek is a slam-dunk to succeed his mother, Rep. Carrie Meek. (Republicans +2,—17R, 8D) GEORGIA—Democrats wielding the redistricting knife got their wish—at first: Republican Representatives Bob Barr and John Linder both relocated to run in the newly created 7th District (suburban Atlanta), with Linder emerging triumphant after a bloody primary. A similar clash between Republican Representatives Jack Kingston and Saxby Chambliss was averted when Chambliss opted to run for the Senate. But in the four open districts that Peach State Democrats once confidently predicted would all be theirs, things are not exactly working out that way. In the 12th District (Augusta), which was carved specifically for the son of State Senate Democratic Leader Charles Walker, “Champ” Walker’s candidacy was rocked recently when area newspapers revealed a rap sheet that, as they would say on Nightheat, “was so long you have to change the ribbon on the printer.” Now the momentum in the race is clearly with conservative educator and GOP nominee Max Burns. Barr’s old 11th District, redesigned to be more Democratic, featured a bloody primary that was won narrowly by Barr’s 2000 opponent, liquor distributor Roger Kahn. Scars from the race have not healed and GOP State Sen. Phil Gingery is running an aggressive race. Democrats probably hold the edge in the race for the race in the new 3rd, which comprises the bulk of Chambliss’s old Macon-based district. Former Macon Mayor and 2000 Democratic nominee Jim Marshall is favored over Bibb County Commissioner Calder Clay, Clay’s superior fund-raising power notwithstanding. That leaves the 13th District (inner city Atlanta) where Democratic State Sen. David Scott is considered a shoo-in. (Republicans –1, Democrats +3—7R, 6D) HAWAII—Democratic Rep. Patsy Mink remains on the ballot more than a month after her death. Nevertheless, Mink should be “re-elected” over Republican State Rep. Bob McDermott, thus setting the stage for two successive special elections in the 2nd District (Maui) that both national parties are sure to focus on. (No Change—2D) IDAHO—Republican Representatives Mike Simpson and Butch Otter should be easily re-elected, although Otter is having a tougher-than-expected race in the 1st District (Boise) with former U.S. Attorney Betty Richardson. (No Change—2R) ILLINOIS—When the census reduced Illinois’s House delegation from 20 to 19, the legislature wiped out Democratic Rep. Dave Phelps’ “Little Egypt” district. Phelps then moved and chose to seek re-election in the Springfield district once held by Abraham Lincoln and, for the last six years, by Republican Rep. John Shimkus. A recent Public Opinion Strategies poll showed Shimkus leading Phelps by a handsome 51% to 38%. In the Prairie State’s lone open House district, onetime Clinton White House political liaison Rahm Emmanuel is the Democratic nominee and will have no trouble holding the 5th District (Chicago) of outgoing Rep. Rod Blagdovich, now the Democratic gubernatorial nominee. (Democrats –1—10R, 9D) INDIANA—Here, where the state loses one seat, Democratic reapportionment ended up making Republican Representatives Steve Buyer and Brian Kerns square off for a single district and Buyer emerged on top. Industrialist Chris Chocola, who drew 47% of the vote against Democratic Rep. Tim Roemer two years ago, is now rated better than even money to pick up the 2nd District (South Bend) seat that Roemer is relinquishing. Chocola’s Democratic opponent is former 4th District Rep. (1989-94) Jill Long Thompson, who relocated to the 2nd after a stint in the Clinton Administration Agriculture Department. Of any sitting House member, the most vulnerable is Democrat Julia Carson of the 7th District (Indianapolis), who faces a strong challenge from onetime Dan Quayle staffer Brose McVey. But Carson has been considered vulnerable in nearly all of her past races and always seems to survive. (Republicans –1—5R, 3D) IOWA—Musical chairs well describes the movements in the Hawkeye State of its House members and five House districts. Interestingly, liberal 26-year Rep. Jim Leach, who moved from the 1st to the new 2nd, is perhaps the most vulnerable House Republican candidate in Iowa, while State Sen. Steve King, a Pat Buchanan Republican non-incumbent and GOP nominee in the new 5th, is considered a sure bet for election. Redistricting forced Republican Rep. Tom Latham to move from the 5th to the reshaped north-central 4th District, where he now appears to be selling the House GOP’s prescription drug package and running ahead of former State Democratic Chairman John Norris. Fellow Republican Rep. Jim Nussle, moving from the 2nd to the redrawn 1st District, is in strong shape a seventh term. By far the most exciting contest is in the new 3rd (Des Moines), which Republican Rep. Greg Ganske relinquished to run for the Senate. Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell moved to the 3rd from his former Southern Iowa district and Polk County Republican Chairman Stan Thompson seems to be doing an excellent job of painting Boswell both as a carpetbagger and a politician who votes both ways on the same issue (the Democrat once voted against and then for repeal of the death tax). (Republicans +1, Democrats -1—5R, 0D) KANSAS—No change likely here. The sole Democratic House member, Dennis Moore, should survive a challenge from retired Navy pilot Adam Naff, and Republican Rep. Todd Tiahrt, who won a closer-than-anticipated contest two years ago with 54% of the vote, should improve on his showing against Wichita lawyer and 2000 Democratic nominee Carlos Nolla. (No Change—3R, 1D) KENTUCKY—Two races first thought to be competitive have now settled into relatively leisurely re-election bids for incumbents. Republican Rep. Anne Northup pretty much wrapped up the 3rd District (Louisville) again when opponent Democratic Paul Conway’s former boss, Gov. Paul Patton, admitted an extramarital affair. Lawyer Geoff Davis had been raising a spirited GOP campaign in the 4th District, but can’t seem to touch Democratic Rep. Ken Lucas, who has all but repudiated his national party on guns, abortion, taxes, and tobacco. (No change—5R, 1D) LOUISIANA—In the only open district—the 5th, relinquished by GOP Rep. John Cooksey to run for the Senate—betting is strong that the front-runners in the November balloting, which is in effect a primary unless someone receives 50% of the vote, will be Democratic State Sen. Rodney Alexander and one of four Republicans. The leading GOPer appears to be former Rep. (1986-92) Clyde Holloway, who has the blessings of House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, and right now Holloway looks likely to win the December run-off against Alexander. (No Change—5R, 2D) MAINE—Democratic Rep. Tom Allen will hold the 1st District and State Senate President John Michaud, a culturally conservative Democrat, will win in the 2nd over liberal GOPer Kevin Bray, former top aide to Sen. Olympia Snowe (R.-Maine). (No Change—0R, 2D) MARYLAND—Democrats in Annapolis who expected their reapportionment plan to give them two of the Republican-held seats in the Free State are starting to show signs of nervousness as the balloting approaches. Liberal Republican Rep. Connie Morella, running in the much more Democratic 8th District (Washington, D.C., suburbs), remains in a neck-and-neck contest with State Sen. Chris Von Hollen. In the 2nd District (Baltimore County) relinquished by Republican Rep. Bob Ehrlich to run for governor, the Democratic nominee, County Executive Dutch Ruppersberger, has his hands full with a hard-hitting GOP opponent: 79-year-old former Rep. (1984-94) Helen Delich Bentley, whose aggressive campaign style, stevedore vocabulary and good record of constituent service are a good fit in this blue-collar district. The Baltimore Sun’s “Maryland Poll” shows Bentley leading Ruppersberger. (No Change—4R, 4D) MASSACHUSETTS—The Bay State delegation remains all Democratic. (No Change—0R, 10D). MICHIGAN—The Republican-sculpted redistricting plan forced Democratic Representatives John Dingell and Lynn Rivers into the same district (Ann Arbor-Dearborn), and two other Democrats, Dale Kildee and James Barcia, into another. Dingell beat Rivers in a nationally watched primary, while Barcia deferred to Kildee and instead ran for his former state senate seat. Secretary of State Candice Miller, the top GOP vote-getter in the Water Wonderland, was rated the favorite in the reshaped 10th District (Macomb County) when House Democratic Whip David Bonior was thought to be a candidate for re-election. When Bonior exited to run for governor, Miller became the overwhelming favorite over Democratic County Prosecutor Carl Marlinga. For a time, Democrats felt they might have cracks at the dramatically changed 9th District and the new 11th District, both in the Oakland County area. But Republicans are now confident that Rep. Joe Knollenberg will hold the 9th over trial lawyer David Fink and that State Sen. Thad McCotter, who recently benefited from an appearance by President Bush, will win the new 11th against Town Supervisor Kevin Kelley. (Republicans +2, Democrats -3—10R, 6D) MINNESOTA—There are only two competitive districts in the Gopher State: the new, Republican-leaning 6th District, where freshman Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy’s residence ended up after reapportionment, and the 2nd District, which Democratic Rep. Bill Luther decided to move to and run in rather than square off against Kennedy, even though the 2nd is even more Republican. Kennedy should win a second-term, despite an unexpectedly mean-spirited assault from left-wing Democrat Janet Robert, who has the strong support of the anti-military Council for a Livable World. Luther, in relocating to the suburban 2nd, found himself facing the Republican who drew 46% and then 48% against him in 1998 and 2000 respectively: conservative retired U.S. Marine Col. John Kline, who did not have to move to run. This time, with superior funding and increased GOP voter strength, Kline should finally make it. (Republicans +1, Democrats –1—4 R, 4 D) MISSISSIPPI—The only competitive contest in the Magnolia State was essentially decided when the Democratic-run U.S. Senate killed the nomination of Charles Pickering, father of Republican Rep. Chip Pickering, to the U.S. Court of Appeals. A strong wave of sympathy and animosity toward Tom Daschle & Co. will almost surely re-elect young Pickering over the man redistricting threw him against, conservative Democratic Rep. Ronnie Shows. (Democrats –1—2R, 2D) MISSOURI—The four Democrats and five Republicans in the House delegation will be re-elected (No change) MONTANA—GOP Rep-at-Large Dennis Rehberg will be handily re-elected. (No Change—1R) NEBRASKA—All three Republican House members will be re-elected. (No Change—3R) NEVADA—The two incumbent House members from the Silver State, Republican Jim Gibbons and Democrat Shelly Berkley, should be re-elected with ease. In the newly created 3rd District, Republican Jon Porter, a former state senator who waged a strong campaign against Berkley for the Las Vegas-based seat two years ago, should emerge triumphant over Democrat Dario Herrera, president of the Clark County Commission. In recent weeks, Herrera has been deluged with charges of ethical missteps, leading one GOP wag to remark that “Dario is a cross between Bill Clinton and Robert Torricelli.” (Republicans +1—2R, 1D) NEW HAMPSHIRE—Both districts will remain in Republican hands. Rep. Charles Bass should survive a well-funded challenge from Democrat Katrina Swett, daughter of Rep. Tom Lantos (D.-Calif.), in the 2nd District (Concord) and moderate State Rep. Jeb Bradley of Wolfboro, winner of a crowded GOP primary in the 1st (Manchester) should hold on to the seat of outgoing Rep. John Sununu, now the GOP Senate nominee, over Democratic former State Rep. Martha Puller Clark, who waged a strong campaign against Sununu in 2000. (No Change—2R). NEW JERSEY—Thanks almost exclusively to a “sweetheart deal” on reapportionment worked out by both parties, there will be no change in the present U.S. House lineup of seven Democrats and six Republicans. In the only open district—the 5th (Bergen County), held by retiring liberal Republican Marge Roukema—recent polls show conservative State Assemblyman Scott Garrett beating liberal Democrat Anne Sumers. For weeks, there has been talk that many establishment Republicans, including Roukema herself, might privately back the Democrat over Garrett, who twice ran primary challenges against her. Roukema herself says she is neutral in the general election, but, except for six years, this district has been in Republican hands since the Depression and Garrett should survive. (No Change—6R, 7D) NEW MEXICO—Republican Rep. Heather Wilson faces her fourth straight heavy Democratic assault since winning her 1st District seat in a 1998 special election. State Senate President Richard Romero is easily her best-funded opponent, but Wilson’s military expertise and membership on the House Armed Services Committee should put her over the top. In the race to succeed outgoing Republican Rep. Joe Skeen—which the Washington Post and other national publications have focused on as a barometer contest—GOP former State Rep. Steve Pearce has the edge. Although State Sen. John Arthur Smith styles himself a “conservative Democrat,” Pearce’s hard-hitting campaign, under consultant Dave Pearson, is taking its toll. Like fellow GOPer Wilson, onetime Vietnam fighter pilot Pearce is helped this year by his military background. (No Change—2R, 1D) NEW YORK—Reapportionment took two of the Empire State’s 31 House seats. For the first time, New York now has fewer House members than Florida or Texas. Under an agreement worked out between GOP Gov. George Pataki and Democratic legislators, each party gave up a member, with veteran Republican Ben Gilman and veteran Democrat John LaFalce, Democrat, both retiring. All remaining incumbents should win again. (Republicans –1, Democrats –1—11R, 18D) NORTH CAROLINA—The state’s long drawn-out redistricting process finally finished by creating a new, sprawling 13th District. Predictably, with Democratic Gov. Mike Easley and a Democrat-ruled legislature having the last word, the district is strongly Democratic and will almost surely elect State Sen. Brad Miller. In the 1st District, retiring Rep. Eva Clayton will be replaced by fellow black Democrat, State Sen. Frank Balance. The only incumbent House member facing a stiff race is two-term Republican Robin Hayes in the 8th District, who has won both terms in tight contests. Rather than nominate a state legislator with a record, area Democrats put up a first-time office-seeker and “Third Way” Democrat, attorney Christopher Khouri. This race will go down to the wire, but Hayes’ strong support of tobacco in a district where Phillip Morris is the largest single employer should save him. (Present Lineup: 4 R, 8 D; New Lineup: 4 R, 9 D) NORTH DAKOTA—Despite the much-ballyhooed candidacy of Republican State Tax Commissioner Rick Clayburgh, Democratic Rep.-at-Large Earl Pomeroy will breeze through to re-election. (No Change—1D) OHIO—Some Republicans felt state party Chairman Bob Bennett didn’t play rough enough in reapportionment—the state loses a seat—especially since his party controlled the board that determines the entire process. Nevertheless, Republicans will up their current 11 out of 19 seats to 12 out of 18. The 3rd District (Dayton) left by veteran Democratic Rep. Tony Hall became significantly more Republican and will be picked up by former Dayton Mayor and big GOP primary victor Mike Turner, defeating longtime top Hall aide Rick Carne. The most interesting race is in the new northeast Ohio district, created out of the former districts of Democratic Representatives Thomas Sawyer (Akron) and James Traficant (Youngstown). Tried and eventually convicted on bribery charges, Traficant opted to run as an independent. Sawyer, pilloried for by unions for his pro-NAFTA vote, lost the primary to 28-year-old State Rep. Timothy Ryan. With Democrats split and Traficant supporters defiantly running a campaign for their jailed hero, state and national Republicans had high hopes their candidate, former state legislator Ann Womer Benjamin, would squeak through. But the district’s voter registration is just too Democratic and Ryan should hold on. (Republicans +1, Democrats –2—12R, 6D) OKLAHOMA—The retirements of Republican Representatives J. C. Watts and Wes Watkins permitted the state to accommodate the one-seat loss from reapportionment without forcing two members to run against each other. Former Secretary of State Tom Cole handily won the Republican primary in the new district and is a strong favorite over Democratic State Sen. Darryl Roberts, who lost to Watkins in 1998. There had been some nervousness about the prospects for freshman Republican Rep. John Sullivan, who won the open 1st District (Tulsa) in a closer-than-expected special election earlier this year and faces a strong Democratic opponent in lawyer Doug Dodd. But running on a ticket headed by two strong Republicans, Sen. Jim Inhofe and gubernatorial nominee Steve Largent, should be enough for Sullivan to survive. (Republicans -1—4R, 1D) OREGON—All present House members will be re-elected. (No Change—1R, 4D) PENNSYLVANIA—With the census taking two House seats away from Pennsylvania, ruling Republicans in the statehouse had a field day with redistricting. Rather than wage divisive primaries against fellow Democratic incumbents, Representatives Robert Borski (Philadelphia) and William Coyne (Pittsburgh) chose to retire. Another Democratic House member, Frank Mascara, was so incensed at the emasculation of his 18th District that he ran in the neighboring 12th against veteran Rep. John Murtha, but lost. The state’s premier House race is in the reshaped 17th District, where 72-year-old Republican Rep. George Gekas is pitted against 45-year-old Democratic Rep. Tim Holden. While age would seem to favor Holden, geography works to the advantage of Gekas. Sixty percent of the new district is from his old Harrisburg district and he should hang on. The new 6th District was practically crafted for Republican State Sen. Jim Gerlach and he should win it over Democrat Dan Wofford, son of former Sen. (1991-94) Harris Wofford (D.-Pa.). The only other competitive House contest is for the Allentown district of Republican Rep. Pat Toomey, who should survive a rematch with United Steelworkers Union official Ed O’Brien. (Republicans +2, Democrats –4—13R, 6D) RHODE ISLAND—There will be no trouble for the two Democratic House members. (No Change—0R, 2D) SOUTH CAROLINA—There’s no real contest in the only open district in the Palmetto State. GOP State Rep. Gresham Barrett is a shoo-in to succeed Rep. Lindsay Graham, now the Republican U.S. Senate nominee, in the 3rd District. (No Change—4R, 2D) SOUTH DAKOTA—Lawyer Stephanie Herseth, heiress to one of her state’s most durable Democratic names, has been waging an unusually strong campaign for the South Dakota at-large House seat against the most renowned South Dakota politician today: Republican Gov. William Janklow, one of only five men in history to have served four four-year terms as governor of their state. With money pouring in to Herseth, the canny Janklow has started to campaign harder and one of his ads even features a warm note he received from Ted Kennedy after testifying before a Senate committee. Janklow is enough of an institution to hold the district of Republican Rep. John Thune gave up to run for the Senate. (No Change—1R) TENNESSEE—The House districts relinquished by Democrat Bob Clement and Republican Ed Bryant to run for the Senate will not change parties. Clement’s 5th District will be won by former 4th District Democratic Rep. (1982-94) Jim Cooper and Bryant’s 7th District should be held by GOP State Sen. Marsha Blackburn, leader of the successful fight to stop the state income tax. But redistricting is likely to put the 4th District of Republican gubernatorial nominee Van Hilleary in Democratic hands, despite a spirited GOP campaign by Hilleary district aide Janice Bolling. The favorite is conservative Democratic State Sen. Lincoln Davis. (Republicans -1, Democrats +1—4R, 5D) TEXAS—For such a big state, there is little action on the congressional level. Physician Mike Burgess will hold onto the Fort Worth-area district of retiring Republican Rep. Dick Armey after winning the GOP nomination over Armey’s son. Former District Judge John Carter, winner of an exhausting Republican primary and run-off for the new Harris County-College Station district, is a cinch in November, and Jeb Hensarling, longtime top aide to Sen. Phil Gramm (R.-Tex.), should win the 5th District (Dallas) seat that three-term Republican Rep. Pete Sessions gave up to run in a new, neighboring district that is more Republican. Democrats felt they had a chance at thwarting Hensarling with former jurist Ron Chapman, who has the same name as a popular disc jockey. But a Baseline poll shows Hensarling leading Chapman by 47% to 36%. (Republicans +2—15R, 17D) UTAH—Many Beehive State Republicans—including State GOP Chairman Joe Cannon—are high on the chances of State Rep. John Swallow’s dislodging freshman Democratic Rep. James Matheson in the redistricted 2nd District (Salt Lake City). But Matheson still appears a narrow favorite—if for no other reason than that he is the son of a revered former governor. Former House Speaker Rob Bishop will keep the 1st District of retiring Rep. James V. Hansen in GOP hands and Republican Rep. Chris Cannon will win again in the 3rd. (No Change—2R, 1D) VERMONT—Independent Bernie Sanders, a Socialist who usually votes with the Democrats and supports their organizing the House, will remain the state’s only member of Congress. (No Change—1 Indep.) VIRGINIA—The only change is that Independent Rep. Virgil Goode has become a Republican. (New Lineup: 8R, 3D) WASHINGTON—The evenly split delegation remains. (No Change—3R, 3D) WEST VIRGINIA—Freshman Republican Shelly Moore Capito should fend off a strong challenge from former state legislator and wealthy trial attorney Jim Humphries. (No Change—1R, 2D) WISCONSIN—The decision of Rep. Tom Barrett to leave to seek the Democratic nomination for governor accommodated the census-required loss of one House district. (Democrats -1—4 R, 4D) WYOMING—Republican Rep. Barbara Cubin will retain the state’s only House seat. (No Change—1R)