Forecast gives GOP 86 percent chance of taking over senate
According to the Washington Post‘s “Election Lab” forecast model, the Republicans have an 86 percent chance of winning back the senate in 2014.
According to the Post:
The updated forecast for the House is nothing surprising. In line with what we’ve previously written, we estimate that the Democrats have less than a 1 percent chance of taking the House. Our model currently estimates that the Democrats will win 193 seats, down slightly from the 201 they controlled after the 2012 election and the 199 they currently control, given existing vacancies. We expect to update this forecast with additional data about the candidates once the primaries are over, and with polling data as well. But, given how strong the Republicans’ position is, we would be surprised if any new information significantly altered the strong odds of continued Republican control.