Is immigration reform political suicide for GOP?
If and when Congress votes on a new immigration bill – whatever the “triggers,” timetables or other provisos – the real issue to be decided will be the same as it has been from the beginning.
That issue is whether the Republican Party, dazed from a daily pounding by the Washington press corps, will agree to commit political suicide by enfranchising 11 plus million illegal aliens on U.S. soil, the vast majority of whom will soon be casting Democratic ballots.
As is well known, the GOP is being stampeded toward this political cliff with the argument that only by agreeing to such legislation can it appeal to Hispanic voters, 70 per cent of whom supported Barack Obama in last year’s election. By endorsing amnesty for illegals (though not called such), say the pundits, Republicans can improve their standing among Hispanics.
This advice, be it noted, comes from the same media/political sectors that constantly urge the GOP to cave in on other issues. According to the political sages, and GOP “consultants” who take their marching orders from the press corps, the party also needs to opt for same-sex marriage, a pro-choice message on abortion and other such positions if it wants to win elections.
Among the questions raised by all this is whether the liberal media spokesmen who urge such policies on Republicans are truly concerned about the well-being of the party. The answer to which is an obvious “no.” As opinion surveys have shown for years, members of the Washington press corps are overwhelmingly Democratic – by margins of four to one or thereabouts – so their interest in helping Republicans win new voters may well be doubted.
Such doubts are reinforced by the fact that, the last time the GOP consented to amnesty for illegals, in 1986, the results were disastrous for the party. The Republican share of the Hispanic vote, rather than increasing, thereafter dropped like a stone, falling from 37 percent in 1984 to 30 percent in 1988. The number of illegals in the country, meanwhile, exploded from three million to the number that we have today.
Based on that experience, it’s not hard to guess what will happen if the current “gang of eight” amnesty bill is adopted. Illegals of all descriptions will instantly be granted legal status, as “registered provisional immigrants,” and placed on a “path to citizenship,” subject to various requirements but supposedly not conferring the right to vote for some time to come. In exchange, there will allegedly be a serious effort to tighten border security, via a Rube Goldberg process stretching out over the span of a decade.
From that scenario, a number of outcomes can be expected. First, based on the Obama record to date, including refusal to enforce existing immigration and ballot protection laws and suing states that try to enforce them, what is the likelihood that this administration will enforce any new border security measures? Again, the obvious answer is zero. And, absent such enforcement, we may be sure that the tide of illegals, encouraged by this new amnesty, will increase still further.
Second, the notion that there will be for some indefinite period a group of eleven-million plus people who have some kind of legal status but are denied the right to vote, will last about as long as it takes Democratic lawyers to file Federal court complaints (probably already drafted) saying that there can be no “second class citizens” in the United States and that these former illegals should be allowed to vote forthwith, without delay or hindrance.
All of this is virtually guaranteed to happen because the immigration battle is strictly about the votes, and nothing but the votes. All the rest is sham and smokescreen. Obama and his party want their 70 percent of these 11-plus million illegals and will stop at nothing to get it. The mystery in the case is why the Republican Party, with its comfortable majority in the U.S. House, would consent to this Democratic power play, and thus connive at its own destruction.
To see what the Republican future would be like under this plan, we need only look to California, which up through 1994 was something of a Republican stronghold. That all changed when state restrictions on immigration were overturned by liberal jurists, and waves of immigrants turned the state’s politics upside-down. Today‘s California GOP is a small minority, routinely outvoted in state and Federal elections, with small chances of improvement.
All this, moreover, drastically understates the damage the GOP will inflict on its electoral prospects by yielding to liberal clamor on immigration. By blithely enfranchising eight or nine million illegal aliens (possibly a good many more) who vote Democratic, the party will both hand a colossal advantage to its opponents and cancel a huge advantage of its own that could lead to Republican victories in the future.
That advantage is the steady rightward trend of America’s native born population, spurred by conservative values and religious precepts disdained by secular liberals in the Democratic Party (and by GOP consultants who share their outlook). As a large and growing body of population data reveals, believers in religious doctrine, the traditional family and pro-life attitudes on abortion are systematically outperforming their secular-liberal opponents in the demographic sweepstakes – having appreciably more children per couple – resulting in a fertility gap that works against the liberals.
Thus states enjoying natural reproductive growth and gaining in population — Utah, the Carolinas, Kentucky, Texas – are steadily turning to the GOP , while those with low levels of reproduction –Vermont, Connecticut, California, New York – are Democratic outposts whose numbers are declining. These birth-rate figures are not surprising, given the now-standard views of the Democratic Party. Pro-abortion, same-sex marriage, disparagement of the traditional family, etc., all make for a declining population. As noted by (liberal) Prof. Jesse Bering, in the Scientific American, “secular non-religious people are being dramatically out reproduced by religious people of every faith.”
Project these trends into the future, and the population outlook for the Democrats is dismal. That is why they not only want illegal aliens, but positively have to have them. Only by importing and enfranchising new voters in this fashion can they compensate for the fertility gap that is working relentlessly against them. By such methods the Democrats can assure themselves of political victory for years to come. So why would the Republican Party help them do it?